This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
US Open quarterfinal play continues Wednesday from the USTA Billie Jean King Tennis Center in Queens, New York. History dictates that a battle between compatriots is likely to be heavily slanted in one's favor, while a pair of Wimbledon champions will look to keep their Grand Slam winning streaks intact, and a young WTA star will try to continue her ascent by knocking off the new world No. 1. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the US Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
US Open Picks: Upset Alert
Qinwen Zheng (+275) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Given her skill set, it was always just a matter of time until Zheng broke through as a contender at Grand Slams, and that time is now for the 20-year-old. She just took care of 2022 US Open finalist Ons Jabeur 6-2, 6-4, and Zheng can continue to swing freely in the first of what should be many Grand Slam quarterfinals, while Sabalenka will have to deal with the pressure of being favored to win not only just this match but the entire tournament, as well as the newfound pressure of being world No. 1 for the first time, which she clinched with a fourth-round win over Daria Kasatkina while Iga Swiatek lost to Jelena Ostapenko. Sabalenka has yet to lose more than three games in a set at this tournament, so it remains to be seen how she deals with the tension of being challenged late in a tight set or match by a player with more firepower than any of her first four opponents. This will be the first meeting between these two.
US Open Odds: Lock It In
Daniil Medvedev (-235) vs. Andrey Rublev
Medvedev is less than two years older than Rublev, so these two Russians have spent countless hours on the court opposite each other, dating back to their youth days. When it comes to facing off in big matches, Medvedev has known exactly which buttons to push to beat Rublev. Medvedev leads their head-to-head 6-2 overall, and that includes straight sets win in both of their previous Grand Slam meetings, which came in the quarterfinals of the 2020 US Open and 2021 Australian Open. The quarterfinals have been a hard stop for Rublev in majors, as he's 0-8 in Grand Slam quarterfinals, with seven of those losses coming since 2020.
Carlos Alcaraz (-425) vs. Alexander Zverev
Zverev's coming off a marathon win over Jannik Sinner that lasted four hours and 41 minutes and finally ended after 1:00 a.m. Tuesday. Conversely, Alcaraz is coming off a routine 6-3, 6-3, 6-4 win over Matteo Arnaldi and has dropped only one set en route to the quarterfinals. Even if the German's able to recover all of his energy in time to face Alcaraz, he'll be fighting an uphill battle against the top-seeded Spaniard, who can match Sinner's power off the ground while also possessing superior touch and court coverage. The one area in which Zverev has the clear edge is his serve, but that's also the shot most likely to be affected by any residual fatigue in his legs from the five-set win over Sinner. Zverev leads their head-to-head 3-2, but the only 2023 meeting between these two went to Alcaraz convincingly, 6-1, 6-2 on clay.
US Open Predictions: Value Bets
Marketa Vondrousova (+105) vs. Madison Keys
Vondrousova's a nice value as the slight underdog here. The Wimbledon champion has won her last 11 Grand Slam matches, and Vondrousova's defensive capabilities and craftiness will make it difficult for the big-hitting Keys to maintain her timing and discipline. The 17th-seeded Keys has picked up back-to-back top-15 wins over Liudmila Samsonova and Jessica Pegula, and she has an impressive 5-4 career record in Grand Slam quarterfinals, but Vondrousova's a perfect 2-0 in Grand Slam quarterfinals, so she plays her best tennis deep in big tournaments. While Keys' power should allow her to dictate play, the confident Vondrousova has consistently excelled in key moments recently, and the No. 9 seed should have the slight edge in this first meeting between these two if she can continue that trend.
