Daytona 500 Preview: The Great American Race

We're set to kick off another season of NASCAR racing, and to get things started we head to the historic Daytona International Speedway for the season-opener. The Daytona 500, also known as the Great American Race, kicks off each NASCAR Cup Series season and is by far the most prestigious event in the sport. The Daytona 500 is on par with the NFL's Super Bowl or Major League Baseball's World Series. It's unique in the fact that it opens the racing season rather than ends it. No other major sport can make that same claim. All eyes in the motorsports world will be focused on Daytona this weekend, because the winner of this race is not only making history, but he's also setting the pace for the season to come. 

If there's one thing that we can count on with Speedweeks at Daytona, it's a lot of practice laps. With all the practice sessions and qualifying races, the drivers really get to know what they can and can't do with their cars over the week of events. Once the drivers get familiar with the aero package and handling of their cars, we should see lots of three-wide, big pack racing in this season's Daytona 500. When we get down to the final 10 laps and crunch time, it will be interesting to see how the drivers mix it up looking for that perfect drafting partner. Pushing and bump drafting are out of the question, so we'll see some precariously close drafting, side-drafting and quickly shifting lanes of racing as drivers look for any open pavement they can find to get to the front. We'll see the pack racing, and unsettled cars that rattles nerves for 475 miles, and then a 25-mile wild sprint to the finish which will have the top contenders climbing over one-another to get to the checkered flag first. As we saw in last season's Daytona 500 finish with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Joey Logano mixing it up, it can make for some pretty big fireworks coming to the checkered flag on that last lap. 

This will be our first points race since the teams loaded up at Phoenix last November, and crowned Ryan Blaney the NASCAR Cup Series champion. While superspeedway racing isn't by itself completely indicative of what we can expect for the entire season, it does give us a good preview of who has the horsepower, handling and teamwork flowing right out of the gate. We expect most of the teams that ended the 2023 season on a high note to continue their momentum with the short off-season and right into the Daytona 500. The teams of Hendrick Motorsports would be a good example of this point.  William Byron and Kyle Larson put together good streaks of consistency as the season closed last November. Those two drivers combined for three victories, 11 Top-5 and 14 Top-10 finishes over the last 10 races of last season. Not to be outdone, the duo of Joe Gibbs Racing (Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell), grabbed two victories, nine Top-5 and 13 Top-10 finishes over those final 10 events. We expect those teams to come running out of the blocks this February. In the opposite sense, some of the drivers that struggled through the Chase for the Cup last fall have a lot to prove during Speedweeks. Drivers like Martin Truex Jr., Alex Bowman and Kyle Busch had better hit the ground running at Daytona, or their season-ending slumps are likely to continue well into 2024.

Before we dive into the driver picks, let's take a minute to look at the loop statistics for Daytona International Speedway. The loop stats are the numbers from NASCAR's electronic timing and scoring from past races. They can track virtually any statistic possible in auto racing. For the purpose of our examination we've chosen to look at average finish, quality passes, fastest laps, laps led, laps inside the Top 15 and the driver rating derived from those statistics. These stats are pretty indicative of the best performing drivers at a particular oval. From these and other numbers NASCAR derives the driver rating. From an overall performance standpoint, it's a great measure of track specific performance. Here are the loop stats for the last 38 races at Daytona International Speedway.

In this race one year ago we crowned a first-time Daytona 500 winner, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. There were an exciting 52 lead changes among 21 different drivers. Those figures are up considerably when compared to the previous three Daytona 500's. We would attribute that aspect to a perfect storm of conditions that included running the race at night. There were a whopping eight caution flags for accidents/debris which amazingly didn't hurt the pace and break up the momentum of all those lead changes. When the dust settled we saw Stenhouse hold off a trio of challengers by the narrowest of margins as the front of the field was battling fender-to-fender on the last lap. The No. 47 Chevrolet would be running first-place when a big wreck would break out just behind the leaders, bringing out the caution. Stenhouse would take the checkered flag under caution and claim his first Daytona 500 crown.  

It would be Stenhouse's third-career win, all on superspeedway ovals, but his first Daytona 500 victory. It capped one of the most thrilling races of the entire season. How can we top that in 2024? Considering that NASCAR returned to Daytona last August and held a race that was 49 laps shorter, but had an impressive 22 total lead changes, we could be poised for major thrills. It might be difficult to replicate that dramatic finish from last season's Daytona 500, but the entertainment factor should be off the charts. As the above electronic scoring statistics show, we have a handful of drivers from many different stables that have a nose for the front at the Daytona oval. We'll outline the usual suspects at this oval as well as a few drivers who may surprise on Sunday and give you the edge that you need to win your fantasy racing leagues for the season-opening Daytona 500.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Ryan Blaney – Over the past two seasons alone, Blaney has amassed some great numbers on the ovals of Daytona and Talladega. The driver of the No. 12 Penske Racing Ford has one win and two runner-up finishes to go along with four Top-5 finishes and 150 laps led. Blaney has set the pace on these big ovals during the last two campaigns. That makes he and the No. 12 team one of the top superspeedway performers entering this Daytona 500. Blaney won the last Cup Series superspeedway race with his convincing victory last October at Talladega. That's a great last look heading into Daytona to kick off a new season. Maybe this weekend is where he finally breaks through to Daytona 500 glory and history.    

Joey Logano – Logano had a bit of rebound season on the superspeedway ovals in 2023, but he still failed to scratch the win column. We fully expect he and the No. 22 Ford team will once again be strong on the big ovals. Logano is a three-time Talladega winner and a one-time Daytona victor (2015 Daytona 500). He's led over 250 laps at Daytona International Speedway and most of those have come since the 2019 season. The Penske Racing star nabbed runner-up and fifth-place finishes in his two Daytona outings of last season. He led 12 laps and collected that runner-up finish in last year's Great American Race. Logano has a good knack for this style of racing and his 27-percent Top-5 rate at Daytona validates that fact.  

Denny Hamlin – Although Hamlin was held out of victory lane on the superspeedway tracks last season, he still showed good speed and raced competitively. The Joe Gibbs Racing star would lead a total of 28 laps between Daytona and Talladega, and Hamlin would grab an impressive third-place finish in his October Talladega start. It was his last look on a superspeedway oval and a very good look at that. You will not find a more decorated or excellent driver for this form of stock car racing in the field. Hamlin is a three-time Daytona 500 winner and he's won twice at the similar oval in Talladega. He's also a three-time winner of the Daytona Duels. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota is one of the more experienced and knowledgeable drivers in the field in superspeedway racing.

Kyle Busch – Perhaps the biggest risk/reward driver in the field this weekend is Busch in the No. 8 Chevrolet. He's a one-time winner at Daytona, but he's never won the Daytona 500. Busch's history at this oval is an uneven affair of brilliant finishes, and devastating DNF's. However, speed has never been an issue. Last season Busch grabbed an impressive spring victory at Talladega and nabbed a strong Top-10 finish in the late-summer race at Daytona. The Richard Childress Racing veteran was in the running to win last season's Great American race, but a multi-car crash among the leaders during overtime would take him out. He's a very intriguing fantasy racing prospect for this weekend's season-opener.    

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Chase Elliott – The Hendrick Motorsports star has been one of the top, consistent superspeedway performers of the last two seasons. Elliott grabbed a win in the fall of 2022 at Talladega and he's amassed five Top-10 finishes in his last eight superspeedway starts. The 13.5 average finish during that span places him among the elite in the series when it comes to big oval consistency and performance. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet grabbed fourth- and seventh-place finishes at Daytona and Talladega late last season, and that is representative of the speed this driver and team has demonstrated at Daytona in recent seasons. Elliott's two-career Talladega victories show he knows how to race among the leaders and succeed in these high-risk races.

Austin Cindric – The 2022 Daytona 500 winner had a bit of tough luck on the big ovals in 2023. Still, the driver of the No. 2 Ford grabbed an impressive 15 laps led and fifth-place finish in his final start of last season at Talladega in October. Cindric showed a real aptitude as a rookie in this style of racing, grabbing a win, two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes on superspeedways. The young driver carried this skill over from his Xfinity Series career. There, Cindric earned one win, six Top-5 and eight Top-10 finishes (57-percent) on the ovals of Daytona and Talladega. It's clear that this style of racing plays to Cindric's strengths as a driver. Penske gives him top notch cars with a lot of speed and he knows how to use them to good effect.

William Byron – Byron had dealt with some consistency issues in superspeedway racing in the past, but the speed to perform has always been there. Last season the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet seemingly put it all together. Byron grabbed three-straight Top-10 finishes starting with the spring Talladega race and ending with his brilliant runner-up finish in the Talladega fall event. That span included a steady eighth-place finish in the Daytona night race in August. Byron is a past superspeedway winner (Daytona 2020), but he's just had some terrible luck with being rolled up in the multi-car crashes the last few seasons. He appears to have shaken that bad luck off in 2023 and will come to Daytona this weekend hungry and capable of a big performance.         

Bubba Wallace – Wallace had trouble "closing" these races on big ovals last year, but his 43 combined laps led between Daytona and Talladega is difficult to ignore. He did finish a reasonable 12th-place in the late-summer during the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona. Wallace has past success at the Daytona oval with four Top-5 finishes, three of those efforts being runner-up finishes in 2018, 2021 and 2022. Wallace just seems to have a nose for the front in these superspeedway events. The career 12.9 average finish at Daytona International Speedway speaks volumes of this fact. The 23XI Racing driver's 2021 victory at Talladega underscores how dangerous Wallace can be in this form of stock car racing, and that's not to be forgotten this weekend.          

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Daytona & solid upside

Chris Buescher – The driver of the No. 17 Ford Mustang is coming off a career season in 2023. Buescher had success on a lot of different tracks, but that also included superspeedways. He collected a stunning victory in the late-summer Daytona event and he also nabbed three Top-5 finishes between the tracks of Daytona and Talladega. Buescher's star shone very bright last year and it led to some pretty impressive performances. He'll kickoff the 2024 campaign in Daytona, where he won last summer. The veteran driver cracks the Top 10 at this oval at a pretty strong 44-percent rate, and that's very good in light of how chaotic and hazardous this style of racing can be most of the time.  

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski suffered through a long, tough 2022 season at RFK Racing when he made the jump from Penske Racing. However, the veteran driver seemed more like himself in 2023 as he grabbed 16 Top-10 finishes and demonstrated much more consistency with his new team. A big part of that success was his performance on the superspeedway ovals. Keselowski led a whopping 42 laps in last year's Daytona 500 before a last-lap crash took him out. He would redeem himself in the spring Talladega race (fifth-place) and summer Daytona event (second-place) and he'd wind up leading 55 laps for the year on the two big ovals. That is hard to overlook returning to Daytona this weekend. Keselowski is a one-time Daytona winner and six-time Talladega winner, so he knows how to get things done in the chaotic, multi-car draft.

Daniel Suarez – You can't argue with results, and that's exactly what Suarez delivered last season on the superspeedway tracks. The Trackhouse Racing veteran nabbed three Top 10's and if you go back into the end of 2022, he collected four Top-10 finishes in the last five superspeedway events. The driver of the No. 99 Chevrolet didn't lead a lot of laps during this span, in fact, it was only 11 combined laps at the front. However, Suarez did demonstrate smarts and a fast car and he would avoid the trouble that would collect other drivers to last until the checkered flag in these high stakes events. Suarez will look to continue that trend in this Sunday's Daytona 500. For most of his career, Daytona has haunted his memories with nine DNF's, however, his seventh-place finish in last season's Great American Race is very noteworthy.           

Alex Bowman – Bowman had a tough season in 2023, but not on the superspeedway tracks. The veteran driver used that Hendrick Motorsports horsepower to grab the pole position in last year's Daytona 500, lead 33 laps between Daytona/Talladega and grab two Top-10 finishes at the big ovals. During his career at Daytona, Bowman has converted three Daytona 500 pole positions and managed to grab five Top-10 finishes (33-percent). We'd like to see that percentage a big higher, but do realize this is high stakes racing. Most importantly, the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet has come away with Top 10's in his last two Daytona races. Bowman seems to be shaking off his inconsistency here and becoming a more reliable performer at Daytona International Speedway.   

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Stenhouse was the "bolt from the blue" that won last season's Great American Race. He would outduel several contenders in the closing laps of last year's Daytona 500 and would grab the win in overtime. While the JTG Daugherty Racing veteran didn't have much luck in the remaining superspeedway events of last season, and has shown a lack of consistency throughout his career on these big ovals, we believe he should on everyone's fantasy radar this weekend. Stenhouse owns three-career Cup Series victories, and all three of them have come on the tracks of Daytona and Talladega. Two of them at Daytona alone. If Stenhouse can avoid the multi-car crashes and last to the end, he's capable of big things. Despite his upbringing racing on dirt, the superspeedway ovals have really been the best tracks of his NASCAR career.  

Corey Lajoie – Some of Lajoie's best performances have come on superspeedway tracks. The Spire Motorsports veteran has always shown a knack for this style of racing. Last season alone he grabbed a pair of Top-10 finishes at Daytona/Talladega, both coming in the latter half of the year. The driver of the No. 7 Chevrolet has just eight Top-10 finishes in 236 Cup Series starts, however, realize that six of those eight Top 10's have come between Daytona and Talladega, with four of them alone at Daytona. There's something special about this track with this driver and team. Lajoie has posted two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes across his last six Daytona International Speedway starts for a respectable 15.8 average finish during the recent span.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Martin Truex Jr. – Daytona International Speedway has been tough on Truex over the years. His 16-percent career Top-10 rate and 21.4 average finish at this oval doesn't inspire much confidence. The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a top performer on short tracks and intermediate ovals, but the big tracks have always seemed to be his weakness. His eight Daytona DNF's outweigh his six-career Top 10's at the track and that's eye opening. Truex has also struggled throughout his career at Talladega and its similar style of racing. The veteran boasts a 24-percent Top-10 rate and 21.3 average finish there as well. Truex has 13 Talladega DNF's vs. nine Top-10 finishes. Over the last two seasons, Truex has only cracked the Top 10 at a lowly 25-percent rate at these two tracks, so it's best to look for your fantasy racing help elsewhere this week.    

Harrison Burton – Among full-time Cup Series drivers the last two seasons, Burton has been among the worst performing on the two superspeedway ovals. The Wood Brothers Racing youngster has just one Top-20 finish in his last eight Daytona/Talladega starts vs. six DNF's. The average finish is an almost unbelievable 31.1, worst among full-time drivers over the last two years. Burton has led 28 combined laps in those races, so it's not for lack of speed. It seems his problems stem more from being in the wrong place at the wrong time and getting rolled up in the big crashes. Burton has not finished on the lead lap of a Daytona/Talladega race a single time in the last two seasons. While Wood Brothers Racing has a rich tradition of superspeedway racing and success, Burton has not been able to deliver that since taking over the No. 21 Ford.       

Ty Gibbs – While we're high on Gibbs in terms of season-long performance, the first weekend may be one to bench him in terms of weekly lineup and salary cap leagues. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has had a tough time on the superspeedways the last couple seasons. Gibbs' qualifying has not been the problem (16.0 average start), but he's had a nose for trouble in these high-stakes races. The driver of the No. 54 Toyota logged DNF's in three of the four Daytona/Talladega events of last season and four of his last five dating back to 2022. With just one Top-20 finish in his first six starts on the big ovals, it's clear that Gibbs just hasn't figured this style of racing out yet. Even if this driver and team show upside speed in qualifying & the Duels, it may still be best to pass in favor of more experienced drivers.   

Tyler Reddick – Reddick has achieved a good mastery of short tracks, intermediate ovals and even road courses to this point in his four-season Cup Series career. However, superspeedways still seem to give him difficulty. The 23XI Racing youngster has just one Top-10 finish in his last eight starts between Daytona and Talladega, and the average finish over that span checks in at a disappointing 25.0. Qualifying doesn't seem to be the problem (average start 13.9) over that span, but finishing is always an issue. DNF's have taken a toll, but wrecks are not the total problem. When finishing at the checkered flag, Reddick is showing difficulty pressing into the Top 15 and racing among the leaders. It could be that he's just not quite figured out yet the art of drafting partners and knowing when to make his move. Key skills in superspeedway performance and success.