Weekly Preview: Farmers Insurance Open

Farmers Insurance Open

Torrey Pines
San Diego, CA

The PGA Tour heads to San Diego for the latest edition of the Farmers Insurance Open.

Before we get to that, let's talk about Jon Rahm. Rahm has been one of the best golfers on the planet almost since he first hit the PGA Tour, but as good as he's been, there's always been this sense that there's more to come. After what he's accomplished the past few months, we might finally be seeing that, and that's bad news for everyone else on Tour. His odds are reaching "Tiger territory," and as ridiculous as that might seem, they might be justified. Just a year ago we saw what an elite player can accomplish when on a heater, but what happens when a player of Rahm's caliber finds another gear? We're about to find out, and maybe we'll witness something we haven't seen in a while.We all know Rahm has the talent to reach another level, but does he have the mental fortitude? That's the hard part, and the reason we've seen only one Tiger Woods over the past 30 years. 

As for this week, there a couple things to keep in mind. First, this event starts on Wednesday and ends on Saturday. Second, there are two courses in play -- the North and South courses at Torrey Pines. The North Course is easier, but the difference between the two isn't nearly what it used to be. The North is no longer a cake walk.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 12:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Luke List shot a final-round 66 on his way to a playoff victory over Will Zalatoris.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (43-10)

These odds are generally reserved for an elite player in a weak field, so the fact that this week's field is not short on talent shows you what both the oddsmakers and the public think of Rahm right now. Everything is lined up perfectly for him. His game could not be in better shape and his track record here is very impressive, with a win, a runner-up, a T3, a T5 and a T7 over six starts. Only once has he not finished top-10. These odds are too low for my liking, so I would wait and see if you could get a better number before the tournament starts.

Xander Schauffele (11-1)

Schauffele put any injury concerns to rest with a T3 at the American Express. He closed with a 62, which gives us even more hope for this week. That's the good news. The bad news is, unlike the previous player and the next one, Schauffele does not have a good track record here. In fact, it's quite poor, with four missed cuts in seven starts. He posted a T2 here in 2021, so we know he can get around this course. It's just a matter of if he will.

Tony Finau (12-1)

Entering the 2022 edition of this event, Finau had played the weekend in all seven of his appearances and had finished top-10 four times. He doesn't have the high-end finishes that Rahm has here, but his consistency is almost unmatched, which makes last year's missed cut so inexplicable. Regardless, Finau is on the brink of something special, and I'd be surprised if he plays poorly this week. The odds are a little light -- especially with Rahm in the field -- but Finau is definitely worth a look, and he seems like a better play than Schauffele.

THE NEXT TIER

Will Zalatoris (14-1)

I was surprised when I saw Zalatoris open at 18-1, and this number makes more sense. His current form isn't great, but it's not bad either. Zalatoris finished under 70 in all eight rounds he has played this year, so he's not that far off. His track record here is solid as well, with a runner-up and a T7 in three starts.

Max Homa (20-1)

Homa's history here is exactly what you want to see from someone on a win ticket. There's enough upside to make you believe he could make a run, and enough poor play to drive his odds up. His four missed cuts in six starts is a concern, but we aren't looking for an OAD pick here. We're looking for a win. If Homa misses the cut, it's no different than a runner-up.

Jason Day (22-1)

The fact that Day has odds under 25-1 is a testament to how far he's come since his game hit a wall a couple years ago. He never fell off the cliff, but he hasn't resembled the player he was at his peak. That could be changing, though. Day played well this past week, but a third-round 70 put him too far behind in a birdie-fest. His track record here is very nice, with six top-10s -- including two wins and a runner-up -- over 13 starts. If he's truly back, he'll make a serious run this week.

LONG SHOTS

J.J. Spaun (50-1)

Spaun broke through last year and has wasted no time backing it up, having earned over $1 million before February. His track record here is a bit scattered, but I dare say he's a better golfer now than he has been at any point in his career.

Luke List (80-1)

I'm generally not a fan of backing the defending champion unless it is an elite player, but at this price -- which has already dropped from 90-1 -- I think there is a lot of value. Expectations are low coming off a missed cut, but maybe that actually helps him. The reason he lands a spot here is his play here over the past two years. He won this event in 2022 and finished T10 the year prior. That T10 included an second-round 77, and if he doesn't blow up in that spot, we might be talking about a back-to-back champion.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Tony Finau - Judging by my OAD pool, most players are waiting for a bigger purse before using Rahm, so I doubt he will be the most popular play this week. With that in mind, OAD players will be looking for someone who is almost elite, yet not so valuable that you can't use him at Torrey Pines. Finau fits the profile, as he's not someone you are saving for a major. It might be nice to have him for an elevated event, but you have to use some high-end players in spots like this.

Moderately-owned Pick: Jason Day - Day fell so far off the radar this past year that he probably wasn't even used by most OAD players. However, he seems to be making a comeback, and if that's the case this is a great spot to use him. You won't need to save him and you probably won't find another place where he has a better track record.

Lightly-owned Pick: Luke List - List hasn't been the most consistent player over the past few seasons, but he seemingly has Torrey Pines figured out. If his form were better he'd be a much more popular choice, but maybe that works in our favor, as his odds are bound to drive away most OAD players.

Buyer Beware: Justin Thomas - Thomas has just one start this year and it resulted in a T25 at the Tournament of Champions, which in a short field is not a quality result. His track record here is satisfactory, but he has rarely played here. In fact, last year's appearance was his first since 2015. That to me says that he's not overly fond of this venue.

This Week: Jason Day - I might be developing a bad habit, but I'm having a hard time using any top-tier players in non-elevated events. Seeing as this one is not elevated, I'm looking past the favorites. I don't see any issues with Day, as his track record here is solid and his form is pretty good.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Jon Rahm ($12,400)
Middle Range: Jason Day ($10,500)
Lower Range: Robby Shelton ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Luke List - I believe List has these courses figured out and that we will see a really solid effort this week. It is a little concerning that he did not play the weekend at The American Express, but a missed cut often results in a more-focused effort the following week, and that's what I'm expecting in this spot.

Previous Results