This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I had all four favorites last week, something that looked good on Saturday, but on Sunday not so much, including my best bet, the Saints.
This week I don't have any strong leans, as I set both lines at three, and it turns out that's what they are.
Buccaneers +3 at Packers
The Buccaneers destroyed the Packers in Tampa Week 6, the only game where Aaron Rodgers looked bad and during which he threw two of his five interceptions. It's possible the Buccaneers happen to match up especially well against the Packers, but more likely that game was an anomaly, as the Packers offensive line has played well the rest of the year, and while the Bucs' pass rush (48 sacks, 5th) is good, it's by no means an outlier.
The Buccaneers offense has been a machine the last few weeks, as Tom Brady spread the ball around to his entire complement of future Hall of Fame or current Pro Bowl-level targets. The Packers defense has been solid against the pass (6.6 YPA, 10th) with 41 sacks (T-10th) and barely worse than the Bucs (6.4 YPA.) The biggest difference between the two defenses has been on the ground: the Bucs held teams to a league-low 3.6 YPC, while the Packers allowed 4.5 (21st.) The Packers offense was the best in the NFL this year (31.8 PPG, 1st and 6.3 YPP, 2nd.) The Bucs weren't too far behind, though (30.8 PPG, 3rd and 6.0 YPP, 7th.)
Bottom line, these
