NFL Game Previews: Patriots-Jets Matchup

New England at N.Y. Jets (+7), o/u 42.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Welp. The Patriots have now lost four consecutive games, including one to the Bills, and it seems safe to say their 11-year reign atop the AFC East (and 11-year playoff streak) is over. The running back committee remains solid, with Sony Michel potentially returning and making it a four-headed monster this week, but nothing else is going right for Bill Belichick's crew. Cam Newton just isn't getting the job done under center — his 174 passing yards last week was his second-highest total of 2020 — and he hasn't tossed a TD pass since Week 3. If there's any secondary for a passing game to get right against though, it's this one. The Jets remain winless and hopeless, and while the Pats are playing badly enough to possibly hand their division rivals a win that would cost them Trevor Lawrence, they can probably still stumble into a victory despite themselves. The Jets will probably take no chances, though, and put Joe Flacco back under center to make sure they lose, and let future trade bait Sam Darnold rest his aching shoulder.

The Skinny

NE injuries: RB Damien Harris (questionable, ankle), WR N'Keal Harry (questionable, concussion), LG Joe Thuney (questionable, ankle), RG Shaq Mason (questionable, calf), RT Isaiah Wynn (questionable, ankle), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (questionable, groin), CB Stephon Gilmore (questionable, knee)

NYJ injuries: QB Darnold (doubtful, shoulder), RB Frank Gore (questionable, hand), WR Jamison Crowder (questionable, groin), WR Breshad Perriman (questionable, concussion), C Connor McGovern (questionable, knee), DE Quinnen Williams (doubtful, hamstring)

NE DFS targets: Cam Newton $5,900 DK / $7,600 FD (NYJ 31st in passing DVOA), Damiere Byrd $3,800 DK / $5,200 FD (NYJ 31st in DVOA vs. deep throws)

NYJ DFS targets: Joe Flacco $4,500 DK / $6,300 FD (NE 32nd in YPA allowed)

NE DFS fades: none

NYJ DFS fades: Chris Herndon $2,800 DK / $4,300 FD (NE second in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: NYJ are 32nd in third-down conversions at 28.3 percent; NE is t-11th in third-down defense at 38.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 9-1 NE, average score 29-12 NE, average margin of victory 18 points. NE has won eight straight meetings

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Harris leads the NE backfield with 70 yards. Newton throws for 220 yards but runs for 50 and a TD. La'Mical Perine manages 50 yards and a receiving score. Flacco throws for 230 yards and a second touchdown to Crowder, but he gets picked off twice. Patriots, 19-14

N.Y. Giants (+3) at Washington, o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Giants remain the worst of the worst, sitting in the basement in the putrid NFC East at 1-7. There are reasons for optimism, though, at least for this week. Their one win came against Washington in Week 6, and their last three losses have been by a combined six points. The Giants' defense has only given up 30 or more points twice this season, which isn't bad for 2020, but the offense has only reached that plateau once. The unit does have Sterling Shepard back and has a solid cohort of targets for Daniel Jones overall, but the second-year quarterback needs to start making better decisions for that to matter much — he's failed to toss at least 200 yards in four of the last six games and remains underwater with a 7:9 TD:INT this year. Washington's had a similar path through the first half of the year with an occasionally stout defense led by a loaded pass rush and a struggling offense, but it's managed to go 2-1 within the division (and 0-4 outside it). Kyle Allen hasn't been awful, but he's not the guy who's going to turn the passing game around. His 6.2 intended air yards per attempt would be second lowest in the league if he had enough passes to qualify, and unlike Drew Brees (the only guy lower), he doesn't have Alvin Kamara on the end of his short strikes, though Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson aren't scrubs. Really, Ron Rivera's boys are in a tough spot. The division is winnable, even for a 2-5 club, but if they've truly given up on Dwayne Haskins, every victory gets them further from one of the non-Trevor Lawrence QBs in next year's draft.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: RB Devonta Freeman (out, ankle), WR Golden Tate (out, coach's decision), LG Will Hernandez (out, COVID)

WAS injuries: WR Dontrelle Inman (doubtful, hamstring), LT Geron Christian (doubtful, knee)

NYG DFS targets: Evan Engram $4,300 DK / $5,500 FD (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

WAS DFS targets: Kyle Allen $5,300 DK / $6,800 FD (NYG 28th in passing DVOA), Cam Sims $3,000 DK / $4,500 FD (NYG 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3), Washington DST $3,400 DK / $4,700 FD (second in sack rate, fourth in INT%)

NYG DFS fades: Daniel Jones $5,400 DK / $6,900 FD (WAS second in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed), Dion Lewis $4,100 DK / $4,600 FD (WAS first in passing DVOA vs. RB), Sterling Shepard $4,800 DK / $5,500 FD (WAS third in DVOA vs. WR2)

WAS DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYG are 31st in red-zone conversions at 40.9 percent; WAS is fifth in red-zone defense at 52.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 NYG, average score 23-18 NYG, average margin of victory 10 points. NYG have won four straight meetings

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Freeman leads the NYG backfield with 70 yards. Jones throws for 220 yards and a TD to Engram while running in a score of his own. Gibson picks up 90 combined yards and a touchdown, while J.D. McKissic catches a TD pass. Allen throws for 260 yards and a second score to Sims. Washington, 24-17 

Chicago (+5.5) at Tennessee, o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Bears are still looking good in the standings at 5-3, but despite their outstanding defense they seem more like gatekeepers than a serious threat to win anything — Chicago's 1-3 against teams with winning records, with the one victory being by a single point at home against the Bucs. The offense hasn't scored more than 23 points in five consecutive games, with Nick Foles limping to a 5:6 TD:INT over that stretch, but with Mitchell Trubisky nursing a shoulder injury, there's no going back, and Allen Robinson remains the only player putting any kind of consistent scare into the opposition. The Titans are also coming off consecutive losses, and last week's stumble against the Bengals should have been a wakeup call for a squad that started the year 5-0. The offense keeps rolling behind Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill, but Tennessee's defense remains sketchy, mainly because they can't keep anyone out of the end zone. The Titans are one of three teams allowing TDs on more than 80 percent of the other guys' red-zone trips, and they're giving up as many points per drive on average as the Cowboys. Facing Foles and the Bears could help temper those numbers, but any time you have a resistance force meeting a movable object, who never know who's going to flinch.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: C Cody Whitehair (out, COVID)

TEN injuries: WR Adam Humphries (out, concussion), OLB Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, knee) 

CHI DFS targets: Jimmy Graham $3,800 DK / $5,300 FD (TEN 25th in DVOA vs. TE)

TEN DFS targets: Kalif Raymond $3,000 DK / $4,900 FD (CHI 29th in DVOA vs. WR3)

CHI DFS fades: none

TEN DFS fades: A.J. Brown $6,600 DK / $7,600 FD (CHI first in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: TEN is second in red-zone conversions at 79.3 percent; CHI is first in red-zone defense at 40.0 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: David Montgomery puts together 70 yards and a score. Foles throws for 240 yards and a TD to Graham. Henry bangs out 90 yards and two touchdowns. Tannehill throws for 250 yards and two TDs, hitting Jonnu Smith and Raymond. Titans, 31-20

Detroit (+4) at Minnesota, o/u 52.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Lions are having an extremely Lions season. Despite the fact that Kenny Golladay has effectively missed three games, they're one of only seven teams this season that's scored at least 20 points in every contest, something the Rams, Titans or even the Packers can't claim. That consistency has only gotten Detroit three wins, though, and two of their losses have been by 20 or more points. They're 3-1 on the road but 0-3 at home, and D'Andre Swift has averaged 11 touches a game since his breakout performance against the Jags. Matt Patricia could be staring at his third consecutive basement finish in the NFC North if he loses to the Vikings. Minnesota's coming off a big win at Lambeau, and Dalvin Cook has simply been unstoppable when he's been healthy, piling up 10 rushing touchdowns in six games. There's a reason they only have two wins, though. The Vikings' defense remains sketchy (though the unit's job gets a lot easier if Matthew Stafford doesn't get cleared through the COVID protocols in time), and Kirk Cousins can't seem to stop giving the ball away. This one could get decided by whoever makes the fewest mistakes.

The Skinny

DET injuries: QB Stafford (questionable, COVID), WR Golladay (out, hip), RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai (questionable, foot), S Tracy Walker (out, foot)

MIN injuries: CB Cameron Dantzler (out, concussion), CB Holton Hill (out, foot)

DET DFS targets: Matthew Stafford $6,600 DK / $7,500 FD (MIN 31st in QB rating against)

MIN DFS targets: Dalvin Cook $8,200 DK / $9,300 FD (DET 23rd in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in rushing TDs allowed)

DET DFS fades: none

MIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIN is fourth in red-zone conversions at 77.3 percent; DET is 26th in red-zone defense at 71.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 MIN, average score 23-17 MIN, average margin of victory 10 points. MIN has won five straight meetings, and four straight by at least 12 points

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: Swift leads the DET backfield with 100 scrimmage yards and a TD. Stafford plays and throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Marvin Jones (who tops 100 yards) and T.J. Hockenson. Cook rumbles for 140 combined yards and another two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Cousins has a big game, throwing for 260 yards and two more scores, finding Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. Vikings, 31-30

Carolina (+10.5) at Kansas City, o/u 52.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Panthers' three-game winning streak has given way to a three-game losing streak, and while they're fighting hard, the holes in the roster are proving to be too much. They should get a boost from the return of Christian McCaffrey, though — Mike Davis was entirely serviceable in CMac's place, but he hasn't been able to top 77 scrimmage yards in a game during the current losing skid. McCaffrey can do better than that in his sleep, and he should see a big workload right away as Carolina tries to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. Mahomes might be in one of his moods, though. After being held to 200 yards and only one TD by the Broncos, he tormented the hapless Jets last week for a season-high 416 yards and five scores. He's only thrown one INT all year, and while the Panthers' defense has been more vulnerable on the ground this season, Mahomes can make any secondary seem like Swiss cheese. He also might get Sammy Watkins back, though in the general scheme of things, that really only matters for folks with Mecole Hardman or Demarcus Robinson shares.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: LT Russell Okung (doubtful, calf), S Jeremy Chunn (questionable, knee)

KC injuries: WR Watkins (questionable, hamstring), RT Mitchell Schwartz (out, back), DE Frank Clark (questionable, knee)

CAR DFS targets: Christian McCaffrey $8,500 DK / $9,500 FD (KC 28th in rushing DVOA, 28th in YPC allowed, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed)

KC DFS targets: Clyde Edwards-Helaire $6,100 DK / $7,000 FD (CAR 26th in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing TDs allowed, 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

CAR DFS fades: Teddy Bridgewater $6,000 DK / $7,300 FD (KC second in QB rating against)

KC DFS fades: none

Key stat: KC is t-third in third-down conversions at 49.5 percent; CAR is 31st in third-down defense at 54.2 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 60s, 15 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: McCaffrey returns with a bang, piling up 130 combined yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Bridgewater throws for 240 yards. Edwards-Helaire gains 80 scrimmage yards and a TD, while Le'Veon Bell adds a receiving score. Mahomes throws for 340 yards and three more touchdowns, hitting Tyreek Hill twice and Travis Kelce and Robinson once each. Kansas City, 38-17

Houston at Jacksonville (+7), o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

With both teams sitting on one win, the loser of this game gets a huge leg up on a better slot in the 2021 draft, though in Houston's case, that just means a better first-round pick for Miami. That record probably doesn't do the Texans justice — their early schedule included the Steelers, Ravens, Titans and Packers, as well as the defending champs — but they've been far from good, despite Deshaun Watson's best efforts. He's throws multiple TD passes in five consecutive games and hit for at least 300 yards in four straight, but it hasn't done much more than keep things close. The defense allows 6.1 yards a play, down near the bottom of the league with the Jets, but fortunately the Jags feature one of the few defenses doing worse in that category at 6.4. Jacksonville's in full tank mode now, and Gardner Minshew's thumb injury saved Doug Marrone the trouble of benching him. Rookie Jake Luton, a sixth-round pick, is almost certainly not the answer in the long term, but he could be just the guy to put the Jags in position to select whomever of Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields the Jets don't take at No. 1.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: LG Max Scharping (out, COVID), LB Whitney Mercilus (out, COVID)

JAC injuries: QB Minshew (out, thumb)

HOU DFS targets: Deshaun Watson $7,100 DK / $8,300 FD (JAC 32nd in passing DVOA, 31st in YPA allowed)

JAC DFS targets: Jake Luton $4,900 DK / $6,500 FD (HOU 32nd in QB rating against, 30th in TD% allowed), James Robinson $7,000 DK / $7,300 FD (HOU 31st in YPC allowed, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed)

HOU DFS fades: Texans DST $3,100 DK / $3,700 FD (32nd in INT%, t-30th in takeaways)

JAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: HOU is t-21st in third-down conversions at 40.7 percent; JAC is 19th in third-down defense at 43.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 HOU, average score 21-16 HOU, average margin of victory 15 points. HOU has won five straight meetings by an average score of 22-8, including a 30-14 victory in Week 5

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-70s, 15 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: David Johnson picks up 80 yards. Watson throws for 270 yards and TDs to Will Fuller and Randall Cobb. Robinson gains 90 combined yards and a score. Luton throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to DJ Chark but gets picked off twice. Texans, 23-17

Baltimore at Indianapolis (+2.5), o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

A few weeks ago, this game looked like it might decide the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but both teams are now looking up at Kansas City and Pittsburgh in the standings — not coincidentally, the only two teams to hand the Ravens a loss. Baltimore's defense has been as stout as ever, ranking second in points per game allowed and seventh in yards per play allowed, but the offense just hasn't been able to get into gear the way it did in 2019. It's a sign of their desperation that they're taking a long look at Dez Bryant on their practice squad, but even if his comeback is successful, he's not going to make much of an impact with the meager handful of targets that go to someone other than Mark Andrews or Marquise Brown. The Colts have also posted excellent defensive numbers (fifth in points per game allowed, third in yards per play allowed) and have had their issues on offense between Philip Rivers' occasional blunders and their inability to establish a consistent running game behind one of the league's top offensive lines. Jordan Wilkins is coming off a performance in which he looked like the guy Jonathan Taylor was supposed to be, but Taylor may or may not have been dealing with a minor ankle issue last week. Given how tough the Ravens' run defense has been, though, it probably won't matter much which Colt gets the carries.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: RB Mark Ingram (doubtful, ankle), WR Devin Duvernay (questionable, thigh), CB Jimmy Smith (questionable, back)

IND injuries: WR T.Y. Hilton (doubtful, groin), TE Mo Alie-Cox (questionable, knee)

BAL DFS targets: J.K. Dobbins $4,900 DK / $5,300 FD (IND 25th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

IND DFS targets: Colts DST $3,300 DK / $4,800 FD (second in INT%, BAL 30th in sack rate allowed)

BAL DFS fades: Lamar Jackson $6,900 DK / $8,100 FD (IND first in QB rating against, third in rushing yards allowed to QBs), Gus Edwards $4,800 DK / $5,400 FD (IND second in YPC allowed, second in rushing yards per game allowed, t-first in rushing TDs allowed), Willie Snead $4,100 DK / $5,100 FD (IND first in DVOA vs. WR2)

IND DFS fades: Jonathan Taylor $6,000 DK / $6,400 FD (BAL first in rushing DVOA)

Key stat: IND is t-22nd in red-zone conversions at 57.7 percent; BAL is 31st in red-zone defense at 81.3 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Dobbins leads the BAL backfield with 70 combined yards, but Gus Edwards scores a short TD. Jackson throws for 200 yards and runs for 50, hitting Miles Boykin for a touchdown. Taylor leads the IND backfield with 60 yards, while Nyheim Hines catches a TD pass. Rivers throws for 240 yards and a second touchdown to Trey Burton, while Bobby Okereke returns a fumble to the house. Colts, 24-17

Seattle at Buffalo (+3), o/u 55.0 – Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST

The Seahawks, or rather Russell Wilson, keep rolling, but the rest of the NFC West refuses to go away. The Rams and Cards remain one win back, and even the 4-5 Niners aren't out of it yet if they could just get healthy. No team is scoring more points per game than Seattle, but they're in the bottom 10 in points allowed per game, giving Wilson slim margin for error. The Seahawks also head into this one missing the top two running backs on the depth chart, but DeeJay Dallas did a solid job last week in the lead role. The Bills are in a much more comfortable position in the AFC East. After getting the Patriots monkey off their backs last week, they're now two wins clear of the Dolphins for the division lead. Josh Allen will need to find his early season form if they're going to keep up in this one, though. He hasn't thrown a touchdown in each of the last two games, and failed to top 160 passing yards in two of the last three. To be fair, he only attempted 16 passes last week as the running game (including his fourth rushing TD of the year) did most of the work. That's probably not going to work this time. Seattle's sixth in YPC allowed, but 25th in YPA allowed and last in passing yards per game allowed.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: RB Chris Carson (out, foot), RB Carlos Hyde (out, hamstring), LG Mike Iupati (out, back), CB Shaquill Griffin (out, hamstring)

BUF injuries: TE Dawson Knox (questionable, calf), C Mitch Morse (out, concussion), LB Matt Milano (out, pectoral)

SEA DFS targets: DK Metcalf $7,800 DK / $8,100 FD (BUF 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)

BUF DFS targets: Josh Allen $7,000 DK / $8,200 FD (SEA 30th in passing DVOA, 32nd in passing yards per game allowed)

SEA DFS fades: none

BUF DFS fades: none

Key stat: SEA is first in red-zone conversions at 88.0 percent; BUF is t-16th in red-zone defense at 62.5 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Dallas dashes for 80 yards and a score. Wilson throws for 330 yards and three TDs, hitting Metcalf (who tops 100 yards) twice and Greg Olsen once. Devin Singletary leads the BUF backfield with 60 yards. Allen throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, both to Stefon Diggs, while also running in a score. Seahawks, 31-23 

Denver (+4) at Atlanta, o/u 50.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

After a couple of sluggish performances, Drew Lock finally showed some life last week, tossing three fourth-quarter TDs in a comeback win over the Chargers. The Broncos have surrounded him with plenty of young talent, but it's still a question whether Lock is the guy to make best use of them — that was only the third time in 10 career starts he's tossed multiple touchdowns, and he has one career 300-yard game (Week 14 in Houston last year). Those kinds of numbers simply don't fly in 2020. He'll be facing a Falcons defense that's on the upswing, despite poor season-long numbers. They haven't allowed more than 23 points in four consecutive games, which is the kind of performance that should give Matt Ryan and Julio Jones plenty of cushion, though Calvin Ridley probably won't join the party this week. They are 2-2 during that four-game stretch, but Ryan hasn't quite been his usual consistent self — he's leading the league in passing yards thanks to high volume, but has tossed multiple TDs three times and zero TDs three times in eight games. The Broncos once again have a stingy secondary, sitting in the top 10 in YPA allowed and TD% allowed, but cracks are showing in the defense as a whole, as it's given up 73 points in the last two games.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: RB Phillip Lindsay (questionable, foot), WR Tim Patrick (questionable, hamstring), RG Graham Glasgow (out, COVID), CB A.J. Bouye (out, concussion), CB Bryce Callahan (questionable, ankle) 

ATL injuries: WR Ridley (questionable, foot), DE Dante Fowler (out, hamstring)

DEN DFS targets: Drew Lock $5,200 DK / $7,200 FD (ATL 29th in passing DVOA, 30th in QB rating against, 30th in YPA allowed, 31st in passing yards per game allowed)

ATL DFS targets: Falcons DST $2,500 DK / $3,300 FD (DEN 24th in sack rate allowed, 30th in INT% allowed, t-29th in giveaways)

DEN DFS fades: none

ATL DFS fades: none

Key stat: DEN is 30th in third-down conversions at 36.3 percent; ATL is eighth in third-down defense at 37.8 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Melvin Gordon leads the DEN backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown. Lock throws for 240 yards and TDs to Patrick and Albert Okwuegbunam. Todd Gurley picks up 70 yards and a score. Ryan throws for 290 yards and two TDs, finding Olamide Zaccheaus and Russell Gage. Falcons, 27-21

Las Vegas (+1.5) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 53.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Raiders got back in the win column thanks largely to the gale howling off Lake Erie, as they were able to lean on Josh Jacobs for what little offense they needed. It should be business as usual this week, though, under the roof at SoFi Stadium. Derek Carr has thrown multiple TD passes in five consecutive games before last week, and he remains on pace for career highs in almost every passing category despite limited contributions from rookie receivers Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards. Carr will need to be in top form, as Justin Herbert just keeps lighting up whatever defense gets put in front of him. While he's certainty benefited from friendly game scripts — the Chargers can't seem to put away any opponent no matter how big a lead they build — the rookie QB has still tossed at least three TDs in four consecutive games and averaged more than 300 passing yards in his six starts with a dazzling 67.4 percent completion rate and 8.0 YPA.

The Skinny

LV injuries: RB Jacobs (questionable, knee), LT Kolton Miller (questionable, ankle), RT Trent Brown (out, COVID), CB Trayvon Mullen (questionable, hamstring)

LAC injuries: RB Troymaine Pope (doubtful, concussion), RG Trai Turner (questionable, groin), DE Joey Bosa (doubtful, concussion), CB Casey Hayward (questionable, personal)

LV DFS targets: Darren Waller $5,800 DK / $6,400 FD (LAC 29th in DVOA vs. TE)

LAC DFS targets: Justin Herbert $6,800 DK / $7,900 FD (LV 27th in passing DVOA)

LV DFS fades: none

LAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: LV is second in third-down conversions at 51.1 percent; LAC are t-11th in third-down defense at 38.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 LV, average score 23-21 LAC, average margin of victory eight points. The last six season series have been sweeps

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Jacobs bangs out 80 yards and a touchdown. Carr throws for 280 yards and two TDs, finding Waller and Nelson Agholor. Justin Jackson leads the LAC backfield with 90 combined yards, but Joshua Kelley vultures a short TD. Herbert throws 300 yards and touchdowns to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but he also tosses a crucial pick-six to Johnathan Abram. Raiders, 31-30

Pittsburgh at Dallas (+14), o/u 42.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Steelers survived their trip to Baltimore and remain the league's only undefeated team, but the bullseye on their back will only grow larger from here. (By "from here" I mean starting next week, because a Cowboys side that isn't 100 percent sure who their QB will be and hasn't scored more than 10 points in three weeks just isn't any kind of threat.) Ben Roethlisberger has occasionally shown his age, but his receiving corps is deep and the team's defense is nasty enough to cover for Ben's mistakes. Speaking on mistakes, NFL leaders in turnovers in da house! The Cowboys remain a mess on both sides of the ball, and they'll have their fourth quarterback of the season under center this week. It'll probably be Garrett Gilbert, who was drafted in the sixth round in 2014 and has attempted all of six passes in the league since, but it could be Cooper Rush, who has three attempts since being an undrafted free agent in 2017. Ezekiel Elliott is also nursing a hamstring strain, so they probably can't even lean on him behind a scrambled offensive line to take pressure off the passing game. For what it's worth, the defense has looked a bit better since Leighton Vander Esch returned to action, but they've also only been playing other NFC East teams lately. Things could be very different against a real opponent.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: LG Stefen Wisniewski (doubtful, pectoral)

DAL injuries: QB Andy Dalton (out, COVID), RB Elliott (questionable, hamstring), DE Aldon Smith (questionable, knee)

PIT DFS targets: James Conner $6,900 DK / $8,200 FD (DAL 30th in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed), Diontae Johnson $5,000 DK / $6,000 FD (DAL 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), Eric Ebron $4,500 DK / $5,400 FD (DAL 31st in DVOA vs. TE), Steelers DST $4,900 DK / $5,000 FD (first in sack rate, third in INT%, DAL 32nd in giveaways)

DAL DFS targets: Amari Cooper $5,600 DK / $7,000 FD (PIT 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)

PIT DFS fades: Chase Claypool $5,700 DK / $6,300 FD (DAL third in DVOA vs. WR3)

DAL DFS fades: Ezekiel Elliott $6,600 DK / $8,000 FD (PIT second in rushing DVOA), Dalton Schultz $3,600 DK / $5,100 FD (PIT first in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: PIT is t-third in third-down conversions at 49.5 percent; DAL is 29th in third-down defense at 49.5 percent

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop: Conner gains 100 yards and a score, and Anthony McFarland adds 60 yards and a TD. Roethlisberger throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Johnson. Elliott manages 50 yards. Gilbert throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Steelers, 30-6 

Miami (+5) at Arizona, o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Tua Time started with a win, but not much Tua'ing, as the rookie QB threw for less than 100 yards in a game dominated by the Dolphins' defense and special teams. In many ways, it was the ideal way to Tua Tagovailoa to get his feet wet, but he'll probably be asked to do a whole lot more in this one, especially with Miami's backfield missing its top two RBs. At 4-3, they're still in the running for a playoff spot, but a lot is riding on the young shoulders of the fifth overall pick. The Cardinals are in a very similar spot, albeit with a slightly better record at 5-2. They might not catch the Seahawks for the NFC West crown (or even stay ahead of the Rams) but they're solidly in the running for a wild-card berth, and relying mainly on a young QB. The Fish would love it in 2021 if second-year Tua looks anything like second-year Kyler Murray. He still makes some head-scratching decisions, but he's accounted for 20 TDs (13 passing, seven rushing) through seven games, and his efficiency numbers as a passer have taken a step forward overall as the addition of DeAndre Hopkins has made a world of difference in Kliff Kingsbury's scheme.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: RB Myles Gaskin (IR, knee), RB Matt Breida (out, hamstring), RB/WR Lynn Bowden (out, COVID)

ARI injuries: RB Kenyan Drake (out, ankle), DE Jordan Phillips (questionable, hamstring), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (out, thigh) 

MIA DFS targets: Preston Williams $4,100 DK / $5,100 FD (ARI 26th in DVOA vs. WR2)

ARI DFS targets: Chase Edmunds $6,800 DK / $7,400 FD (MIA 32nd in rushing DVOA)

MIA DFS fades: none

ARI DFS fades: Christian Kirk $5,300 DK / $5,900 FD (MIA second in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: MIA is 29th in third-down conversions at 37.8 percent; ARI is seventh in third-down defense at 36.8 percent

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: Patrick Laird leads the MIA backfield with 50 yards, while Jordan Howard punches in a short TD. Tagovailoa looks good, throwing for 270 yards and touchdowns to Williams and DeVante Parker. Edmunds zips for 120 combined yards and a receiving score, while Eno Benjamin surprises with 40 yards and a TD. Murray also runs for 40 yards and throws for 250 and two more touchdowns to Hopkins and Larry Fitzgerald. Cardinals, 31-27

New Orleans (+5) at Tampa Bay, o/u 51.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Saints have won four straight but they haven't made it easy, as none of the four were by more than six points and two went to overtime. Drew Brees has more than got by without Michael Thomas available, throwing for either 300 yards or multiple scores (but not both) in all six games the receiver has missed, but Thomas seems poised to return Sunday in time for the game that could well decide the NFC South champion. The Bucs also come into this one with plenty of momentum having won three straight, though they barely escaped MetLife Stadium with a victory last week. Tampa's had their own injury issues at WR, but Chris Godwin could be ready to return from a finger injury for this one and, oh yeah, Antonio Brown will see his first NFL action since Week 2 of 2019, when he caught his first and only touchdown as a Patriot. The fact that Tom Brady is so firmly in his corner is encouraging for his odds of making this comeback work, but he's also 32 and coming off a long layoff. This game might depend more on the Bucs' ability to slow  Brees than on Brady and his ridiculously talented trio of receivers providing lots of fireworks.

The Skinny

NO injuries: WR Thomas (questionable, hamstring)

TB injuries: WR Godwin (questionable, finger), LG Ali Marpet (out, concussion)

NO DFS targets: none

TB DFS targets: Mike Evans $6,400 DK / $7,500 FD (NO 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

NO DFS fades: Drew Brees $6,100 DK / $7,700 FD (TB first in passing DVOA), Alvin Kamara $8,100 DK / $9,000 FD (TB third in rushing DVOA, first in YPC allowed, first in rushing yards per game allowed), Michael Thomas $6,900 DK / $8,600 FD (TB second in DVOA vs. WR1)

TB DFS fades: none

Key stat: TB is third in red-zone conversions at 77.4 percent; NO is 32nd in red-zone defense at 83.3 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 NO, average score 28-23 NO, average margin of victory 10 points; NO has won four straight meetings, including a 34-23 victory in Week 1

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-70s, 16-17 mph wind, 10-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Kamara gains 80 combined yards. Brees throws for 230 yards and TDs to Jared Cook and Thomas. Leonard Fournette leads the TB backfield with 80 scrimmage yards and a score. Brady throws for 280 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Evans twice and Brown once. Buccaneers, 31-17

Green Bay at San Francisco (+5.5), o/u 50.0
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

There's a lot of history between these teams, as last year's meeting in the NFC championship was their eighth playoff clash since 1996 (4-4, but the 49ers have won three consecutive postseason games; including regular-season games, they're 6-2 since 2012). Given the injury and COVID-19 situations with both rosters, though, watching this "marquee matchup" could be like splurging on tickets to a big Broadway hit and getting the understudies instead of the usual cast. The Packers' backfield could be down its top-three options, potentially leaving 2019 sixth-round pick Dexter Williams in the early down role after he got all of five carries as a rookie, and zero so far this season. Green Bay still has Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams available, though, and most of its starting defense, which is a lot more than you can say for San Francisco. No Jimmy Garoppolo, no George Kittle, no Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk ... it's remarkable the Niners are 4-4 given how many games various key players have missed, but that patchwork roster has made their performances very volatile week to week. Nick Mullens will need to do better than he did in his last start if they're going to pull this one out.

The Skinny

GB injuries: RB Aaron Jones (questionable, calf), RB Jamaal Williams (out, COVID), RB AJ Dillon (out, COVID), LT David Bakhtiari (questionable, chest), CB Kevin King (out, quad)

SF injuries: QB Garoppolo (IR, ankle), RB Tevin Coleman (out, knee), RB Jeff Wilson (IR, ankle), WR Samuel (out, hamstring/COVID), WR Aiyuk (out, COVID), WR Kendrick Bourne (out, COVID), WR Richie James (questionable, ankle), TE Kittle (IR, foot), LT Trent Williams (out, COVID)

GB DFS targets: Darrius Shepherd (SF 25th in DVOA vs. WR3)

SF DFS targets: Jerick McKinnon (GB 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB)

GB DFS fades: Packers DST (31st in INT%, t-30th in takeaways)

SF DFS fades: 49ers DST (GB second in INT% allowed, first in giveaways)

Key stat: SF is eighth in red-zone conversions at 73.3 percent; GB is 28th in red-zone defense at 73.9 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Williams leads the GB backfield with 60 yards. Rodgers throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, finding Adams and Shepherd. McKinnon racks up 90 combined yards and a score, while JaMycal Hasty adds 60 yards. Mullens throws for 240 yards and TDs to Ross Dwelley and James. 49ers, 27-20
 

Last week's record:8-6, 7-7 ATS, 9-5 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 73-45-1, 61-56-2 ATS, 49-67-3 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 157-98-1, 123-125-8 ATS, 127-122-7 o/u
Lifetime record: 866-527-6, 654-693-52 ATS, 542-578-23 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)