This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
For this week's ADP Analysis we'll compare data from Aug. 8-12 to results from Aug. 15-19. This keeps us away from the last huge piece of news, which was the Washington Football Team waiving Derrius Guice on Aug. 7. There's been some new injury info with other players, but most of the ADP shifts we see below are likely based on reports coming out of training camp or discussion happening in the fantasy football community.
(All data pulled from BB10s)
Moving Up ⬆️
RB Kareem Hunt 
RB29, ADP 57.1 ➡ RB28, ADP 53.9
Hunt seems to have support from all the right people in the fantasy football media world, but I'm here to tell you they're (probably) wrong. His oft-cited production from the second half of last season occurred in an offense with no fullback and brutal tight ends, while his 2020 production will need to be earned under a new coaching staff in an offense that has Austin Hooper, David Njoku and Andy Janovich at its disposal
Those two-halfback sets last year were cute, but that doesn't mean they'll be a big part of Kevin Stefanski's playbook. In other words, Hunt's path to fantasy-starter status probably requires a Nick Chubb injury. Chubb is nursing a concussion at the moment — perhaps explaining Hunt's ADP bump — but he should be fine before Week 1. And while we're on the subject, I think Chubb is overrated at RB10. The implied production with RB10 and RB28 coming from the same backfield involves a bunch of different assumptions, including Stefanski being extremely run-heavy and the Browns being a much better team this year. Both things are possible; neither is even close to assured.
RB38, ADP 94.8 ➡ RB36, ADP 90.9
It's widely been assumed Melvin Gordon will get most of the Denver backfield targets and at least half of the carries. But early reports from training camp suggest the first-team split has essentially been 50/50, which may be a sign of respect for what Lindsay's done for the team, or perhaps a result of Gordon adjusting to the altitude in Colorado. Of course, it usually takes only a few weeks for that adjustment, and I'm pretty sure a professional athlete can acclimate to Denver (~5,200 feet) if I can handle the change on a trip to Quito (~9,300 ft.).
I'm fine with drafting Lindsay in the eighth or ninth round as a high-end backup, but I don't especially care about any of the stuff that's inspired his small ADP bump. Gordon is still the one with the bigger contract, the bigger body and the better track record as a pass catcher. Lindsay has been the better runner overall, but those carries between the 20s aren't worth a whole lot for fantasy managers. Gordon should have the high-value touches even if the overall carry split is closer to 50/50.
RB64, ADP 205.7 ➡ RB62, ADP 190.4
I'm on record being highly skeptical of McKinnon, who was never particularly good in the first place and then missed back-to-back seasons with major knee injuries. But I guess I'm skeptical relative to twitter hype more so than ADP data, considering RB62 feels about right. Just don't expect a Week 1 role that's large enough for mainstream fantasy relevance.
WR63, ADP 155.8 ➡ WR59, ADP 146.5
Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne both have been getting camp hype early and often, with multiple reporters suggesting Bourne has been the team's best receiver in practice and Aiyuk hasn't been too far behind. But we've also seen positive spin for Dante Pettis and now Trent Taylor, so I'm starting to wonder if it's all nothing more than delusional optimism emanating from San Francisco. Plus, coach Kyle Shanahan hasn't even given up on the possibility of Deebo Samuel (foot) making it back for Week 1. Consider me out on Aiyuk now that acquisition usually demands a top-150 pick.
WR79, ADP 222.3 ➡ WR75, ADP 206.4
Edwards seems to have a lot of fans, be it in the Raiders organization, the dynasty fantasy community or just anyone with a twitter account and an opinion. The rookie third-round pick might've garnered Round 1 consideration in a different draft class, and we've already seen reports that he's getting snaps with the first-team offense. I still think Tyrell Williams (WR76) is better than 50/50 to outscore Edwards on the season, but there's no question the rookie is the one with upside, even if he starts his career merely rotating in as the fourth receiver behind Williams, Henry Ruggs and Hunter Renfrow.
On a personal note, I recently scooped Edwards in a rookie dynasty draft where a bunch of second-round picks (KJ Hamler, Chase Claypool, Denzel Mims, Van Jefferson) were still on the board. I also got Hamler and Claypool later on, so it was a nice result overall.
TE Tyler Eifert
TE31, ADP 232.2 ➡ TE29, ADP 224.9
Fellow Jags tight end Josh Oliver was diagnosed with a broken foot Sunday and placed on injured reserve Thursday. That leaves Eifert as the team's only tight end with any pass-catching upside, likely positioning him for a handful of targets per game for as long as he stays healthy. None of the other TEs in this ADP range has a similarly clear path to steady volume. I'd already been drafting Eifert heavily, and I don't plan to stop anytime soon.
Moving Down ⬇️
QB25, ADP 173.6 ➡ QB26, ADP 181.2
I don't have any explanation for the ADP dip, but I do think it puts Rivers closer to where he belongs. Even if he plays better than he did last season, he's a statue who never produces any rushing stats, playing in an offense that wants to keep its running backs well-fed. The best-case scenario for Rivers' 2020 fantasy production looks something like 2019 Jimmy Garoppolo.
QB29, ADP 218.1 ➡ QB30, ADP 228.6
Tagovailoa was taken in 66 of 94 drafts (70 percent) Aug. 8-12, compared to 39 of 76 (51 percent) Aug. 15-19. He's a wonderful prospect and all that good stuff, but everything coming out of Dolphins training camp suggests Ryan Fitzpatrick is a big-time favorite for the Week 1 start. Tua will play at some point this season, but I'd rather take a Week 1 starter like Tyrod Taylor (QB31) with one of my final picks in a best-ball draft. I'm shocked Taylor hasn't generated more interest, considering his rushing ability creates low-end-QB1 or high-end-QB2 upside for however long he retains the starting job.
RB Sony Michel 
RB44, ADP 113.6 ➡ RB46, ADP 122.8
Hayden Hurst's ADP only ever goes up, and Michel's only ever goes down. James White (RB32, ADP 76.4) and Damien Harris (RB53, ADP 156.0) remain good picks in my mind, while brittle Michel remains a bad one. Harris has slowly moved up the ADP ranks this summer, and I suspect he'll be a consistent top-150 pick soon enough.
RB Devonta Freeman (FA)
RB57, ADP 176.2 ➡ RB59, ADP 185.6
Freeman's value drops with each passing day that doesn't result in a signing. He looked washed up last season, yet reportedly expected significant guaranteed money on a contract this spring. I don't have any shares in best ball and recently offloaded my only share in dynasty. There's a real chance Freeman doesn't get much playing time in the NFL this year, and some chance he doesn't even sign with a team. Even in the 16th round, you can find better options at running back.
RB/WR Antonio Gibson 
WR48, ADP 112.7 ➡ WR49, ADP 116.2
The initial post-Guice enthusiasm is starting to cool off, perhaps because it was overkill in the first place, or maybe because Bryce Love (RB66) is building up some hype of his own. I'm guessing Love will make an appearance in our next edition of ADP Analysis.
WR49, ADP 115.5 ➡ WR51, ADP 120.3
I haven't seen any interesting reports on Shepard or even other members of the Giants offense, but I figure it's worth pointing out when one of the most underrated assets in the game somehow becomes even more underrated. I have Shepard on 13 of my 40 best-ball teams on Drafters.com, and five out of seven on BB10s. He's never averaged fewer than 6.6 targets of 4.1 catches per game in a season, and his health issues are probably overblown (he's played 82 percent of available games in his NFL career). I also like Darius Slayton (WR41) and Golden Tate (WR53), so let's hope the Giants are heavy users of 11 personnel this year.
