Notre Dame vs. Navy: Odds, Picks & Predictions for Week 0

Notre Dame vs. Navy: Odds, Picks & Predictions for Week 0

This article is part of our College Football Picks series.

Notre Dame vs. Navy Betting Odds and Best Bets

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The Irish and the Midshipmen get the 2023 college football season underway from Dublin, Ireland! The leading storyline here is the much-anticipated debut of Wake Forest transfer QB Sam Hartman for Notre Dame, who should offer the most stability they've had under center in a while and a newfound consistent vertical threat. But Navy is also ushering in a new era under first-year head coach Brian Newberry. He and his staff reportedly have some new wrinkles no one is prepared for within the traditional triple-option offense that could make for some sparks throughout the game.

Notre Dame vs. Navy Betting Odds for  Week 0

Spread: Notre Dame -20.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Total: 49.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Moneyline: Notre Dame -1400 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Navy +900 (DraftKings SportsBook)

The spread has remained relatively static since the lines opened. Notre Dame began as a 21-point favorite, it fell as low as 20 before ticking back up. The half-point across books is potentially paramount, so if you're backing the Irish, make every effort to get it below the full three touchdowns.

The total however has slowly crept up, opening at 49.0 and sitting as high as 50.5 as of Wednesday evening. Going north of seven total touchdowns is just what the books want. Navy wants to grind clock, force the Irish to be impatient and force things. But Notre Dame is capable of getting 35-40 points by themselves with a few sustained drives and a few shot plays.

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Notre Dame vs. Navy Betting Picks for Week 0

Moneyline plays here don't seem to have any appeal. There's no value on the Irish given the risk, and save for a few dollar dart throw on Navy, if you're backing the Midshipmen, why not take three touchdowns at near even money instead? We'll have our spots during the year for a moneyline on a dog; I'm not saying Navy can't win, it's just not the right big play out of the gate.

Historical data isn't usually relevant given roster turnover, but these schools meet annually, and Notre Dame usually dominates. They're 79-13-1 SU overall, with Navy winning four times since 2007. Of the Irish's last nine wins, the average margin has been by 19.2 points, with blowouts and close games creating a wide variance.

With minimal confidence, I'm siding with the Irish here. They led Navy 35-13 last year at halftime before an odd second half where they didn't score. Their schedule doesn't set up to where they need to play this close to the vest, and they can use their entire playbook rather than holding things off tape for future opponents. They'll score throughout, and Navy won't keep up. Perhaps that gives us a lean towards the over, but ultimately, give me the Irish to cover where available under three touchdowns.

Notre Dame vs. Navy Best Bet: Notre Dame -20.5 at FanDuel or DraftKings Sportsbook

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Notre Dame vs Navy Predictions for Week 0

I can't be less confident in the above pick. Notre Dame has two new starters at guard and struggled with Navy's blitzing schemes last year. If the Midshipmen can pressure Hartman, he's shown vulnerable. Of his 12 interceptions last season, six came in two games. There's certainly a path for the Midshipmen to scheme on both sides of the ball and make this an infuriating game for Notre Dame players, coaches and fans.

But talent usually wins out. I look for Notre Dame to counter blitzes with a strong rushing attack, led by massive Audric Estime, and make strike plays on occasion downfield. And how many new wrinkles can Navy's option attack come up with? It may take some time, especially if Navy can churn clock early. But through four quarters, the Irish linebackers will get their assignments down and prevent Navy from scoring enough to compete. Notre Dame wins 38-14.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Bennett
Bennett covers baseball, college football and college basketball for RotoWire. Before turning to fantasy writing, he worked in scouting/player development for the Atlanta Braves and Montreal Expos. He's also a fan of the ACC.
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