The game is changing, or at least that's what it looks like when I think over the last last few years. Then again, Dan Okrent's been playing fantasy longer than I've been alive, so maybe my memory deserves and asterisk.
But if there is a change, you need to be aware of it. Or else you're drafting at a disadvantage.
There' two parts to why I think drafting catchers is different this year. First, the 600-lb gorilla: Matt Wieters.
If you're in a keeper league all bets are off on how early he goes. The talk is huge, the projections are solid and guess what: Wieters won't start the year in the majors. But that doesn't matter, because if you grab him you'll keep him and shape your team around him. Or so you hope. Then again, he could just pull an Alex Gordon (really 2009 is Gordon's year).
The other reason is the catcher position, seemingly overnight, became deep (for 1 C leagues).
Look at this list of catchers most people would want on their team:
top tier
Martin
Soto
Mauer
McCann
Vmart
Wieters
next tier
Doumit
Napolli
Iannetta
Posada (still could get 90 RBIs ppl...not likely, but he could)
B. Molina
and whatever 1 of approximately 3,532 catchers Texas has.
Joe Mauer and company are certainly heads and shoulders above Mike Napolli, but, Mighty Mike still gives value.
Let's just go back in time five years ago...when the position was Jorge Posada and that's about it.
In 2002...
There were 4 catchers with 12 or more HRs (2 at 12hr, then 19 hr and 20 hr).
Only 1 catcher with 65 or more RBI
Only 3 catcher with more than 59 R
And SBs....don't even think of it.
Now fast foward to 2009 projections:
There are guided to be 16 catchers with 12 or more HRs (3 north of 20)
Analysts see 9 catchers with more than 65 RBI (2 with nearly 100!)
Forecasts call for 9 catchers with 59 or more R.
And SBs...well if you're name isn't Russell Martin, not much has changed.
Something has changed my friends. My guess is GM said "wow that Jorge Posada reallly is nice to have in the lineup...maybe we shouldnt ignore the offensive side to catching anymore"
So strategy may be changing how you take a catcher as they can now give you reason to grab them earlier.
Patrick Cain