FanDuel NBA: Friday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Friday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

It's another super-sized slate Friday night after a three-game ledger Thursday. And as is often the case with a large number of games on the docket, there's plenty of scenarios to like in DFS. In fact, as of early Friday, there were only two games with spreads greater than five points on FanDuel Sportsbook. That implies should be plenty of wire-to-wire battles where frontline players log heavy minutes. One of the feature contests is a rematch between the Nets and Cavaliers, with the first game Wednesday finishing with a combined 282 points over six quarters and a barrage of very fruitful DFS performances.

Slate Overview

Here's a further look at the three games with the highest-projected totals on today's slate as of early Friday morning: 

Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers (Projected total: 227.0 points) 

As just mentioned, these squads nearly short-circuited the scoreboard Wednesday. That makes this total perhaps too conservative, relatively elevated as it is. Brooklyn comes in allowing the sixth-most points per game (115.8). And while the Cavs rank fourth in the league with only 106.1 per contest allowed, they've yielded 118.3 over their last three. Needless to say, there will also be no shortage of elite offensive firepower on the court with names like Durant, Harden and Irving, and the overall offensive potential will only rise if Darius Garland is successfully able to make his return from a shoulder injury. (UPDATE: Durant is now questionable due to potential load management)

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs (Projected total: 222.5 points) 

Neither team is poor defensively by any stretch - and, in fact, the Mavericks come in allowing the sixth-fewest points per game (107.2). However, the Spurs have been a bit more giving with 110.5, including 112.3 per home contest. San Antonio is also allowing 47.0 percent shooting on its home floor, including an NBA-high 43.2 percent from behind the arc. That could naturally spell plenty of trouble against a Dallas squad with Luka Doncic and Tim Hardaway among shooters that can turn it on from distance when hot.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Clippers (Projected total: 220.5 points) 

The heavier scoring expectations here are definitely on the Clippers' end of things, as L.A. is allowing only 107.8 points per game, while the Thunder come in surrendering 112.6. Additionally, the Clips are shooting an NBA-high 44.1 percent from three-point range, an elite figure that helps them pile up points in bunches. There are some skilled scorers in the form of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George taking the floor, but the molasses-like 100.2 possessions per game the Clippers play at could certainly bog things down a bit.

Injury Situations to Monitor

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate. 

Kevin Durant, BKN (load management/Achilles)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE

Durant was added to the injury report Friday morning. If he were to sit out, Joe Harris would likely move into the first unit, while Kyrie Irving and James Harden would see their already elevated usage expand even further.

Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN (COVID-19 protocols)/ Status: OUT 

Towns' ongoing absence Friday should continue affording Naz Reid and Ed Davis time at center.

Jayson Tatum, BOS (COVID-19 protocols)/ Status: OUT

Tatum's fourth straight absence should keep Daniel Theis in the starting lineup and lead to increased usage for Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker. 

Christian Wood, HOU (ankle)/ Status: OUT 

Wood's absence, coupled with that of John Wall, should lead to plenty of extra usage for the likes of Victor Oladipo, Eric Gordon and P.J. Tucker. DeMarcus Cousins and Jae'Sean Tate.

Jimmy Butler, MIA (COVID-19 protocols)/ Status: OUT 

Butler's sixth straight absence should continue allowing Kendrick Nunn and Andre Iguodala some extra run and lead to elevated usage for the remainder of Miami's starters.

Pascal Siakam, TOR (groin)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE

If Siakam were to sit out, Stanley Johnson could potentially see more minutes, while the remainder of the Raptors' starting five would also see bumps in offensive opportunities. 

Myles Turner, IND (hand)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

It Turner were to sit Friday, Domantas Sabonis could potentially see some time at center, while Goga Bitadze would also stand to see a bump in playing time. 

John Wall, HOU (knee)/ Status: OUT 

Wall's ongoing absence should lead to plenty of extra usage for Victor Oladipo and Eric Gordon in particular, especially with Christian Wood also out. 

Michael Porter, Jr., DEN (COVID-19 protocol)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

If Porter is able to return from an extended absence Friday, it remains to be seen whether he'd reenter the starting five immediately or come off the bench behind Will Barton. 

Darius Garland, CLE (shoulder)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

If Garland is able to return from an eight-game stint on the sidelines, Collin Sexton would presumably shift back to shooting guard and Damyean Dotson would likely see a reduction in minutes. 

Other notable injuries: 

Tyler Herro, MIA (neck)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Wendell Carter, CHI (thigh)/ Status: DOUBTFUL 

Marvin Bagley, SAC (wrist)/ Status: PROBABLE 

De'Andre Hunter, ATL (knee)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Goran Dragic, MIA (foot)/ Status: PROBABLE 

Ricky Rubio, UTA (COVID-19 protocols)/ Status: OUT

Elite Players

There are five healthy players with five-figure salaries on Friday's big slate, beginning with Nikola Jokic ($11,200) and continuing with Luka Doncic ($11,000), James Harden ($10,700), Kevin Durant ($10,500) and Joel Embiid ($10,000).   (UPDATE: Durant is now questionable, as noted earlier)

All five are intriguing options, and it's arguable any could turn out to be the highest-scoring player on the night. The last four offer especially favorable matchups, and what Harden and Durant were able to accomplish against the Cavaliers in the first meeting Wednesday will certainly be on DFS players' minds. So too should Embiid's 65 FD-point tally against a Celtics' team that he'll see again Friday.

There are also several players with salaries in the high four-figures who are capable of delivering elite scores, including Nikola Vucevic ($9,900), Trae Young ($9,900), Kawhi Leonard ($9,500), Zach LaVine ($9,300), Kyrie Irving ($9,200) and Clint Capela ($9,200). The latter two are especially appealing, considering how well Irving meshed with Harden in his first game sharing the backcourt with him Wednesday and Capela's matchup against a T-Wolves' team worst in the league against centers in the wake of his monster 27-point, 26-rebound double-double against the Pistons on Wednesday.

Expected Chalk

All the names mentioned in Elite Players section are naturally going to be very popular on Friday, although the fact there are so many games on the slate can't help but keep rosters varied. Additionally, some of the big-name confirmed absences on the injury report are going to also lead to some heavy chalk – Karl-Anthony Towns should lead to increased rostering rates for D'Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley in particular, Jayson Tatum's should result in Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown being even more popular, and Victor Oladipo and some of his first-unit mates will certainly see their profiles rise due to the absences of John Wall and Christian Wood.

Key Values

Lauri Markkanen, CHI vs. CHA ($6,700)    

Markkanen has scored between 30.2 and 43.5 FD points over his three games since returning from an extended COVID-19 absence, and he'll draw a strong matchup with which to potentially deliver another strong performance Friday. The opposing Hornets are ranked last in offensive efficiency surrendered to power forwards (29.9 percent), and they're allowing 49.5 FD points per game to the position overall. Markkanen is boasting career highs in overall shooting percentage (47.2) and three-point shooting percentage (40.0), and he's encouragingly averaging 34.0 minutes per contest since coming back.   

Kevin Huerter, ATL at MIN ($5,900)

Huerter got DFS's attention by racking up 46.2 FD points two games ago against the Timberwolves, and followed it up with an impressive 34.0 FD points versus Detroit on Wednesday. He now gets another crack at Minnesota on Friday, which comes in allowing the fifth-highest offensive efficiency (27.0 percent) to two-guards, along with the seventh-most FD points (42.9) to the position. Huerter is also shooting a solid 37.5 percent from three-point range and has already delivered at least 5x his current salary on four occasions, coming just a tenth of a point short of doing it in five instances overall.

Eric Gordon, HOU at DET ($5,200) 

Gordon is one of the aforementioned Rockets who should benefit greatly from the absences of both John Wall and Christian Wood, and he already comes into the contest playing very well of late by scoring over 20 FD points in three straight - including 28.4 and 26.4 in his last two. He's shooting an elevated 48.9 percent - including 40.9 percent from behind the arc over that modest sample - and boasts a 29.8 percent usage rate while averaging 1.01 FD points per minute with his pair of teammates off the floor this season. The Pistons also make for a favorable matchup, considering Detroit is allowing 43.1 percent shooting from behind the arc to small forwards.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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