Kyle Hendricks

34-Year-Old PitcherSP

Chicago Cubs

2024 Stats

W-L

0-2

ERA

12.71

WHIP

2.24

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Hendricks got a delayed start to his 2023 campaign due to a shoulder strain he sustained in July of the previous season. The veteran debuted in May and ended up tossing 137 innings across 24 starts. He ultimately posted a 3.74 ERA, which was a step down from his 3.48 career mark but a step forward from the 4.80 ERA he recorded in 2022. Per usual, Hendricks continued to pitch to contact, as he recorded only 93 strikeouts across those 137 innings. The righty has now posted a K/9 below 8.0 in each of the last seven seasons. While Hendricks can make that work to some degree in real life, it does limit his fantasy upside. Heading into his age-34 season, Hendricks should once again be a key cog in Chicago's rotation, likely slotting in behind Justin Steele and possibly Jameson Taillon. Hendricks figures to be fairly consistent if he stays healthy and can provide some value to fantasy managers in the right matchups, though keep expectations in check due to his advancing age and low strikeout totals. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#500

ADP

Overall

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'3"

Weight 190

DOB 12/7/1989

Born Newport Beach, CA

College Dartmouth

Drafted 8th Rd 2011 TEX

Rocked by Diamondbacks

PChicago Cubs

April 17, 2024

Hendricks didn't factor into the decision Tuesday, allowing seven runs on five hits and three walks across 4.1 innings against Arizona. He struck out three.

ANALYSIS
Hendricks gave up four extra-base hits on the day, including a solo home run to Joc Pederson and a two-run homer to Lourdes Gurriel. The 34-year-old has given up five or more runs in each of his four starts this season and has surrendered seven home runs in 17.0 innings of work. He's lined up for a decent bounce-back opportunity against the Marlins on Sunday.

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Kyle Hendricks generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Kyle Hendricks generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

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Extra

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% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-6%

BAA vs LHP

2024

-11%

BAA vs LHP

2023

-21%

BAA vs LHP

2022

-22%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.260	538	97	36	128	29	3	23
Since 2022vs Right	.276	484	73	22	126	24	4	12
2024vs Left	.366	46	7	4	15	4	0	5
2024vs Right	.410	42	4	3	16	1	1	2
2023vs Left	.225	300	53	16	63	15	1	6
2023vs Right	.286	278	40	11	75	15	2	7
2022vs Left	.291	192	37	16	50	10	2	12
2022vs Right	.226	164	29	8	35	8	1	3
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-3%

ERA at Home

2024

-14%

ERA at Home

2023

-21%

ERA on Road

2022

-5%

ERA on Road

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	4.68	1.35	123.0	5	8	0	7.1	1.9	1.4
Since 2022Away	4.84	1.27	115.1	5	8	0	5.7	2.5	1.2
2024Home	11.25	2.50	4.0	0	0	0	9.0	4.5	2.3
2024Away	13.15	2.15	13.0	0	2	0	4.8	3.5	4.2
2023Home	4.16	1.32	71.1	3	5	0	6.7	1.6	1.1
2023Away	3.29	1.08	65.2	3	3	0	5.5	1.9	0.5
2022Home	4.91	1.30	47.2	2	3	0	7.6	2.1	1.7
2022Away	4.66	1.28	36.2	2	3	0	6.4	3.2	1.5
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Stat Review

How does Kyle Hendricks compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

1.57

K/9

5.8

BB/9

3.7

HR/9

3.7

Fastball

88.0 mph

ERA

12.71

WHIP

2.24

BABIP

.394

GB/FB

1.60

Left On Base

49.6%

Swinging Strike

6.7%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Shorter leash expected

PChicago Cubs

April 12, 2024

Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic speculates that manager Craig Counsell will have a quicker hook for Hendricks going forward as batters are 7-for-9 against him so far in 2024 with three homers the third time through the lineup.

ANALYSIS
Hendricks' numbers the first and second time through the order also aren't good with an OPS of .946 and .963, respectively, but that's still markedly better than the third time through. The 34-year-old has surrendered 17 earned runs, including five homers, across 12.2 innings this season, though an unsustainable .429 BABIP and 4.38 xFIP offer a bit of optimism for a turnaround. Even if Hendricks gets back on track, his 16.1 percent strikeout rate last season severely limits his fantasy upside.

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

Hendricks' pitch-to-contact style has seemingly caught up with him the last two season. After registering a then career-worst 4.77 ERA in 2021, he posted a 4.80 ERA in 2022 before getting shut down in August with a capsular tear in his shoulder. The righty ultimately made 16 starts, logging 84.1 innings and striking out 65 batters. That equates to a 7.04 K/9, which is in line with his 7.40 K/9 career mark. In an era where pitchers have consistently thrown harder with an emphasis on missing bats, Hendricks has always been an exception. He had plenty of success prior to 2021, so it will be interesting to see if he can regain that form once he's healthy. It's possible that the league has figured out Hendricks, but fantasy managers can likely take a chance on him at a discount in drafts.

It was a tale of three seasons for Hendricks. He started with a 7.54 ERA and 1.76 through his first five outings. Hendricks then posted a 2.89 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over his next 18 starts, spanning 112 innings. Unfortunately, he finished with a 7.96 ERA and 1.51 WHIP over his final nine games. All told, 2021 was the worst season of Hendricks' career, marred by a 16.7 K%, the lowest of his career. Hendricks' fantasy calling card has been durability and reliability, providing a solid innings floor, paving the way for drafting risky, upside arms. Durability is still a plus, but after last season, Hendricks' reliability is debatable. At minimum, it's no longer safe to pair Hendricks with a high strikeout guy with spotty control. Hendricks' value has always been more about what he buffers for the rest of a fantasy staff. Without that buffer, he's a ratio risk without the strikeout parachute.

Yu Darvish had the better overall season, but Hendricks was once again stellar for the Cubs in 2020, and it was the latter who started Game 1 of the team's Wild Card series. Hendricks does not rack up strikeouts like Darvish or other top pitchers across the league, which keeps him a bit below the radar. He posted a 7.1 K/9 in 2020 and hasn't topped 8.0 K/9 since 2016. Hendricks instead relies on excellent command and the ability to effectively mix up his pitches to keep hitters off balance. Throughout his seven-year MLB career, Hendricks has never had an ERA higher than 3.95 or a WHIP higher than 1.19. That type of consistency makes Hendricks an extremely valuable fantasy asset, even if he doesn't miss as many bats as other frontline starters. Heading into his age-31 season, Hendricks will aim to eclipse 200 innings for the first time, which was a stated goal before the 2020 season was condensed.

Durability, reliability and consistency define Hendricks' career. He's compiled at least 30 starts and 177 innings in four of the past five seasons. It would be 31 and 180-plus if the Cubs didn't shut him down and let him pitch on the last day of the 2019 season. While there's nothing overly egregious in Hendricks' 2019 indicators, his xFIP and SIERA were well over 4.00. This may signal some skills erosion and an impending ERA correction, but his 10.3% swinging-strike rate was his career best and his 16.2 K-BB% was his highest since 2016. Hendricks' velocity and pitch mix were the same as usual, so while ERA estimators are usually telling, this could be an exception. The good thing is Hendricks' lack of strikeouts keeps his acquisition cost low, so the risk implied by 2019's xFIP and SIERA is baked into the cost. Hendricks remains an option to buffer ratios while we chase strikeouts elsewhere.

Hendricks had one rocky month (7.03 ERA in June) but was otherwise very good in 2018, finishing as a top-30 starting pitcher in terms of earned value. He threw a career-high 199 innings and induced a ton of weak contact -- his opponents' soft-contact rate was among the highest in the league. Hendricks' changeup graded out as the absolute best among qualified starters by FanGraphs' Pitch Values. His fastball averages a mere 86.9 mph, but because of the movement and deception, the pitch graded out as above average. He's never going to be a huge strikeout pitcher with his arsenal (7.6 K/9 for career), but Hendricks is one of the smartest players in baseball and he's proven effective with the way he mixes his pitches and approaches certain hitters differently. He still has a good defense behind him and a good offense powering him, so Hendricks should once again be a coveted arm on draft day.

Even though his ERA rose by nearly a run last season, Hendricks solidified himself as the Cubs' ace while Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta saw their numbers plunge following the team's World Series-winning campaign. With a fastball that sits in the mid-to-high-80s, Hendricks isn't a prototypical top-of-the-rotation arm, but his brilliance lies in his ability to stay ahead of hitters in the count, avoid mistakes and eat innings efficiently. Those attributes rarely yield lofty strikeout totals for the right-hander, but Hendricks is capable of netting fantasy owners above-average production in wins, ERA and WHIP so long as the offense and defense supporting him remain strong. Staying healthy was an issue for Hendricks in 2017 and prevented him from justifying his draft-day price, but he was sensational upon returning from right hand tendinitis in late July and presents little risk heading into spring training. He turned in a 2.19 ERA and 3.79 K/BB after the All-Star break, both of which were roughly in line with his 2016 marks.

Hendricks took another step forward in 2016 and established himself as one of the best starters in the National League. Concerns about his strikeout rate in 2015 were erased as he improved his swinging-strike rate to a career-high 10 percent, while maintaining the pinpoint control he's shown throughout his time as a professional. While he does not overpower opposing hitters, Hendricks locates his offerings exceptionally well, and he consistently works ahead in the count by pounding the strike zone early (his 68.6 percent first-strike rate tied him with Johnny Cueto as the MLB leader among qualified starters). His changeup continues to be his best pitch, and that offering generated the fourth-most swinging strikes among all changeups league-wide last season. Even though his skills appear to be stable, Hendricks' ERA seems almost certain to rise, but he could stay below the 3.00 mark if the defense behind him continues to rank as the league's best.

Hendricks saw a substantial gain in strikeout rate last year, from 5.3 K/9 to 8.4, despite zero increase in his swinging-strike rate. Called strikes were the stark difference in his profile, as his called strike rate jumped six percentage points to 38-percent, third-highest among qualified starters. He shifted to a sinker-changeup focus and he buries both pitches low & away to righties and lefties for called strikes: sinker for righties, change for lefties. Hendricks also exploits the biggest general change in the strike zone as a means to gain a lot of these strikeouts: the lower third. He threw 52-percent of his pitches in the lower third, 13th-highest among the 78 qualified starters. He leveraged the framing of Miguel Montero and David Ross as well, posting an 8.8 K/9 (24-percent K rate) with them. The strikeouts will likely decline without some added swing-and-miss, but his groundball lean and penchant for strikes should enable him to maintain solid value.

Hendricks has put a lot of innings on his young arm, but if you're going to pitch as well as he has, 180 innings seems appropriate. He blew threw the minors in less than four years, dominating at every stop, before he got the call from the Cubs last year, when he finished 7-2 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 13 starts. Hendricks' excellent control (15 walks in 80.1 innings) contributed to his strong results, but his strikeout rate was poor. He had good strikeout rates in the minors, so there is hope that he can improve in that area. If he does, Hendricks will become much more useful to fantasy owners.

The Dartmouth-educated Hendricks was the Cubs' Minor League Pitcher of the Year when he went 13-4 with a 2.00 ERA between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa. Even better was the outstanding 128:34 K:BB ratio in 166.1 innings. Given his success on the field and between the ears, it looks like he could be spending time in Chicago this season.

More Fantasy News

Hit hard Wednesday

PChicago Cubs

April 10, 2024

Hendricks (0-2) allowed seven runs on nine hits over five innings to take the loss Wednesday against the Padres. He had no walks and struck out two.