Robbie Ray

Robbie Ray

32-Year-Old PitcherSP
San Francisco Giants
60-Day IL
Injury Elbow
Est. Return 7/19/2024
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Ray took home the AL Cy Young for his work with Toronto in 2021 and was signed to a five-year, $115 million contract by the Mariners after the season. After a solid if unspectacular 2022 campaign that saw him register a 3.71 ERA and 212:67 K;BB over 189 innings, the left-hander was only able to make one start in 2023 before suffering a flexor strain that eventually led to Tommy John surgery in May, and he's expected to miss the first half of 2024. When healthy, Ray still has some of the better swing-and-miss stuff of any left-handed pitcher in baseball, and he's seen a dramatic improvement in his ability to throw strikes over the past two seasons thanks to some mechanical changes made after joining the Blue Jays in the middle of 2020. The question now becomes how much a year-plus delay will impede the 31-year-old's command, and if he'll still have the same ability to miss bats following the operation. There's certainly reason to believe he can be a strong option following next year's All-Star break, but there's considerable risk that comes with the potential reward. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#541
ADP
$Signed a five-year, $115 million contract with the Mariners in November of 2021. Traded to the Giants in January of 2024. Contract includes opt-out clause after 2024.
Completes side session
PSan Francisco Giants
Elbow
March 11, 2024
Ray (elbow) threw a 25-pitch bullpen session Monday, Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
ANALYSIS
Ray likely won't be an option for the Giants until the second half of the season while he completes his recovery from the Tommy John surgery he underwent last May, but he's seemingly steered cleared of any major setbacks through the first 10 months of his rehab program. Though pitchers have returned from the elbow operation in as few as 12 months, Ray's procedure also included a flexor tendon repair, so he'll likely be facing a longer recovery timeline than the typical Tommy John patient.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-8%
BAA vs LHP
2024
No Stats
2023
 
 
-38%
BAA vs RHP
2022
 
 
-10%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .218 153 47 6 31 7 3 4
Since 2022vs Right .236 641 168 61 136 23 2 28
2024vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023vs Left .400 7 3 1 2 1 0 0
2023vs Right .250 12 0 4 2 0 0 0
2022vs Left .212 146 44 5 29 6 3 4
2022vs Right .236 629 168 57 134 23 2 28
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-32%
ERA at Home
2024
No Stats
2023
 
 
-100%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-36%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 3.17 1.07 113.2 6 7 0 10.0 2.7 1.3
Since 2022Away 4.69 1.42 78.2 6 6 0 10.2 3.8 1.8
2024Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023Home 8.10 2.70 3.1 0 1 0 8.1 13.5 0.0
2023Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2022Home 3.02 1.02 110.1 6 6 0 10.0 2.4 1.3
2022Away 4.69 1.42 78.2 6 6 0 10.2 3.8 1.8
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Robbie Ray See More
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56 days ago
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Working on new pitch
PSeattle Mariners
February 16, 2023
Ray said Thursday he's been working on a new pitch, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times.
ANALYSIS
Ray wouldn't divulge any real details about the new offering, but it's an exciting bit of news from a pitcher who already boasts incredible swing-and-miss stuff. He incorporated a new two-seam fastball on the fly last year while striking out 212 batters across 189 regular-season innings, though he endured some struggles down the stretch.
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Fresh off winning the AL Cy Young with Toronto in 2021, Ray joined Seattle on a five-year, $115 million deal helped his new team break a 20-year playoff drought. However, the left-hander saw his effectiveness drop across the board and finished 2022 with a 3.71 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 212:67 K:BB over 189 innings. He surrendered four runs in three frames during the wild-card round, and he then took a loss out of the bullpen in the ALDS without recording an out. It was an unceremonious end to the campaign as he surrendered 21 earned runs in his final 31 frames between the regular season and playoffs. Still, Ray had a solid 8.0 percent walk rate, which illustrates that his improved control from 2021 wasn't a one-year fluke. Now 31 years old, he likely won't be in contention for another Cy Young Award, but he should remain a strong mid-rotation piece for the Mariners if he can continue to keep the walks down.
A large majority of the baseball world missed on Ray last season, us included. Statistically speaking, there was no case for drafting Ray heading into 2021. He had posted a double-digit walk rate in four consecutive seasons, including a 17.9 BB% during the shortened 2020 campaign, he struggled with homers and his WHIP had been north of 1.33 in all but one of his big-league seasons. However, the lefty provided a valuable reminder that these players are human beings and not static numbers on a spreadsheet. After joining the Blue Jays on a one-year, $8 million deal, Ray went to work on his mechanics, reverting to an old three-quarters arm slot he had used in the past. His adjustments bore immediate fruit in spring training and Ray's dominance continued into the regular season, culminating in an improbable AL Cy Young Award. He was more confident attacking hitters and shaved more than 10 percentage points off his walk rate. The Mariners bought high in the form of a five-year, $115 million contract. You'll have to buy high too if you want him on your fantasy roster this season.
If you came here looking for a case to draft Ray, you've come to the wrong place. Simply put, there is nothing to hang your hat on here. Ray made 12 appearances (11 starts) between Arizona and Toronto last season and went 2-5 with a 6.62 ERA. The lefty gained a tick of velocity but it did not matter; in fact, Ray's already-poor control only worsened, with his walk rate reaching a truly disastrous level at 17.9%. His struggles with the long ball only got worse as Ray served up 2.26 HR/9. He can still get his strikeouts around all the walks and homers, but it's not enough to salvage his fantasy value. The damage he's capable of doing to the ratio categories makes him a dangerous pitcher to have in your active lineup -- you could be left digging out of the hole for weeks. If you have to pick him up to stream him at some point, Godspeed. Try your best not to get to that point.
Pitch inefficiency continues to haunt Ray. His 33 starts tied for the eighth most, but 174.1 innings checked in as 44th most. While an 11.2 BB% in tandem with a 31.5 K% contributed to high pitch counts, a 1.55 HR/9 also led to him hitting the showers early. Ray fanned double-digit hitters seven times, including in his last two starts of the season. However, he also issued at least four free passes 10 times with another 10 allowing multiple homers. Of slight concern is Ray's velocity has dipped for two straight seasons. Still just 28 years old, there's a chance Ray's command and control improve, but if they do not, a further decline could lower strikeouts, his primary fantasy asset. There's no harbinger of a change. Until Ray demonstrates consistently better control and command, he is what he is -- a plus for strikeouts but a big ratio risk, best streamed in favorable matchups.
Ray's season was shortened by injury. He made only 24 starts and fell well short of earning what many fantasy owners invested in him. His 3.93 ERA was a near-perfect settlement between his inflated 4.90 ERA in 2016 and his fortunate 2.89 ERA in 2017. It could have been much better with more credence to the times-through-the-order penalty. Ray's ERA the first time through a lineup was 2.81 and 2.59 the second time through, but ballooned to 9.13 thereafter as 11 of his 19 home runs allowed came that third time through. This has long been a problem for Ray, but one he was able to keep at bay in 2017 for most of the season. Ray's 2018 was a reminder that one season in a new direction does not mean a problem is resolved. He still gets strikeouts late in the game, but his command falters, so his misses become extra-base hits more often than not. He is a three-pitch guy with two strong breaking balls, but a quicker hook would help him in 2019.
2016 Robbie Ray was not as bad as his win-loss record and ERA. Conversely, he was not as good as his 2017 win-loss record and ERA either. The book on Ray has been: he is going to get a ton of strikeouts (12.1 K/9 last season), he is going to struggle with his command (3.9 BB/9) and he'll serve up some homers (1.28 HR/9). The difference between 2016 and 2017 was in his left-on-base percentage, as he stranded 68.7 percent of runners in 2016 but jumped that rate up to 84.5 percent in 2017. That latter rate is what power relievers do and starters struggle to eclipse 80 percent in consecutive seasons. He also avoided the Times Through The Order (TTOP) penalty; after allowing 49 percent of his 2016 earned runs when he was allowed to face batters for a third time, that number fell to 26 percent this past season. Expect the three truisms to continue for the most part, although with the new humidor at Chase Field, Ray should be able to cut down on the long balls.
If fantasy baseball pitchers were measured just in terms of strikeout rate, Ray might be among the first arms taken in drafts. He finished last season with an 11.3 K/9, which ranked second in the majors. Ray struck out 10 or more batters four times. Ray often racked up the strikeouts only to surround them with mediocre overall stats. Walks have been a big part of the issue. Ray walked 3.7 hitters per nine innings last season, which is in line with his career 3.6 BB/9. Ray's propensity for issuing free passes offsets his ability to miss bats and helps explain his 1.45 career WHIP. If -- and this is a big if -- Ray could cut down on the walks, he'd likely take off and post stellar fantasy numbers. Even if he does not improve upon last season's ratios, the strikeouts alone make him a solid middle-round investment in mixed leagues, and he should be particularly appealing for owners looking to supplement a low-ratios/middling-strikeouts starter taken ahead of him in drafts.
Though his win-loss numbers didn’t show it, Ray put together a solid 2015 for the Diamondbacks. He struck out 119 batters and compiled a 3.52 ERA (3.53 FIP) across 127.2 innings, and according to his 1.7 WAR, he was second the second best pitcher on the team, trailing only closer Brad Ziegler. It was a marked improvement from 2014, when Ray posted an 8.16 ERA in nine games (six starts) for Detroit. Ray could still probably stand to improve his control - he walked 3.5 batters per nine innings in 2015, which matched his 2014 rate. While he didn’t join the rotation for good until June last year, Ray should be a staple in the D-Backs rotation at the outset of 2016. However, this is a team that has cycled through rotation arms with frequency over the past couple seasons, so if Ray struggles there will be another middling option waiting to take his place.
The Tigers were high enough on Ray to make him the key piece in the Doug Fister trade prior to the 2014 season. Unfortunately, Ray's lone season in the Tigers' organization was a rough one. The 23-year-old lefty split time between Triple-A Toledo and Detroit. In 20 appearances for the Mud Hens, Ray went 7-6 with a 4.22 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 75:44 K:BB ratio in 100.1 innings. His time in Detroit was even bumpier, but on the plus side, Ray did impress in the Arizona Fall League, allowing three earned runs and striking out 12 in 11 innings. Although it was a disappointing year, it was Ray's first taste of Triple-A and major league ball, and with a fastball that touches 93 mph, a changeup and an improving slider, there's reason for optimism heading into his first year with Arizona. Harnessing his control is the biggest obstacle Ray needs to hurdle before the start of the regular season. If Ray can nab the final spot in the Diamondbacks' rotation, he'll garner some interest in deep mixed and NL-only leagues.
Ray broke through at High-A last year and held his own as a 21-year-old after a promotion to Double-A, and the Nationals wasted no time cashing in his new-found prospect status by dealing him for Doug Fister. Ray's control remains a work in progress, and given the Tigers' recent failures to develop left-handers with similar profiles (Exhibit A: Andrew Oliver) he can hardly be considered can't-miss. However, if Ray does build on last year's success, a 2015 major league debut seems likely.
More Fantasy News
Placed on IL
PSan Francisco Giants
Elbow
February 14, 2024
The Giants placed Ray (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
ANALYSIS
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Throwing three times per week
PSan Francisco Giants
Elbow
February 14, 2024
Ray (elbow) said Wednesday that he's been cleared to throw three times per week as he works his way back from May 2023 Tommy John surgery, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
ANALYSIS
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Set to throw from 120 feet
PSan Francisco Giants
Elbow
January 26, 2024
Ray (elbow) will throw from 120 feet Saturday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
ANALYSIS
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Headed to Giants via trade
PSan Francisco Giants
Elbow
January 5, 2024
The Giants acquired Ray (elbow) from the Mariners on Friday in exchange for Mitch Haniger (back), Anthony DeSclafani (elbow) and cash considerations, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Moved to 60-day IL
PSeattle Mariners
Elbow
June 12, 2023
The Mariners transferred Ray (elbow) to the 60-day injured list on Monday, Shannon Drayer of Seattle Sports 710 AM reports.
ANALYSIS
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