MLB Betting: Wednesday Best Bets

MLB Betting: Wednesday Best Bets

This article is part of our MLB Betting series.

Previous day: 1-2-1, -1.18 RWBucks

Season: 62-82-2, -28.49 RWBucks

This is one of those Wednesdays with a lot of getaway day games, seven to be exact. That leaves eight on the night slate, with a surprising number of viable picks in those games. Let's get to them with no preamble today.

7 p.m. Yankees (Gerrit Cole) team total over 4.5 (-118) versus Jays (Ross Stripling)

The Yankees seem to have left their funk behind, scoring at least five runs in five of six contests on this three-city road trip so far. In six games at Sahlen Field this season, teams are averaging just shy of ten runs per game in total, after the park produced 11 runs a contest last season. Finally, Ross Stripling is a #4 starter at best, with a 5.26 ERA since being traded to the Jays last August. It all adds up to runs for a Yankees lineup that can still hit the ball as hard as any team in baseball. 1.5 RWBucks.

7 p.m. Cubs (Robert Stock) +245 over Mets (Jacob deGrom)

Betting the narrative? Maybe. The Mets have gotten some of their regulars back, yet still are down a lot of team OBP. In a quirk, deGrom has made five straight starts against the NL West, and six of his ten starts against that division overall. Prior to this week, the Mets had played the weakest schedule in baseball. Stock is the listed starter in what looks like a bullpen game for the Cubs...whose bullpen has been very good since a rocky April. Let's take a shot for 1 RWBuck.

7 p.m. Orioles (Keegan Akin)/Indians (Aaron Civale) over 7.5 (-118)

I've faded Aaron Civale a few times in this space, and it may be time to stop doing so. The right-hander is riding his excellent command to a 3.17 ERA over just shy of seven innings a start. I'm still betting the FIP (4.26) and the expectation that his extremely low BABIP allowed, .234, has to come up. I cannot, however, bet the Orioles, whose last road win was started by Mike Cuellar. Let's look for a 6-3, 6-4 type contest in this one. 1 RWBuck.

10 p.m. Phillies (Zack Wheeler) +125 over Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw)

Because deGrom has missed some time, it's Zack Wheeler who leads the NL in strikeouts and FIP. The former Met has become one of the best free-agent signings in recent years in Philadelphia, with a 2.57 ERA across 24 starts. It's never a safe feeling betting on a right-handed starter against the Dodgers, but this is an opportunity to get the better starter at plus money, and the likelihood that a heavily-worked Dodgers pen will come into play in the late innings. 1 RWBuck.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Joe Sheehan
Joe Sheehan has been a contributing writer to RotoWire since its inception and can frequently be heard as a guest on RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM Radio. A founding member of Baseball Prospectus, Sheehan writes the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, at JoeSheehan.com.
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