This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 1-3, -2.14 RW Bucks
Season: 15-16-3, -2.71 RW Bucks
With another split slate Thursday, and I'm honing in on two night games that feature four pitchers who have been effective overall in the first month-plus of the season. One of those games unfolds in a hitter-friendly environment, but I'm taking a bit of a contrarian view on the total while trying to take advantage of a favorable price on one prop wager in particular.
Odds are from WynnBet Sportsbook.
Marlins at Phillies, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Sandy Alcantara vs. Vince Velasquez
The Pick: Phillies (-125) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: First 5 innings Over 4.5 runs (+104) for 1 RWBuck
Alcantara took it on the chin against the Dodgers on the road his last time out, allowing eight earned runs on seven hits and two walks over 1.1 innings. However, he was impressive otherwise, pitching to a 2.72 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in his first eight starts of the season. Nevertheless, he has a bit of a tall order in the form of a Phillies team that's 14-7 straight up at home and whose bats have tagged him for a .343/.415/.523 batting line in 95 career plate appearances. Philadelphia is also ranked in the top half of MLB with 4.6 runs per home game, and Alcantara now has a 6.86 ERA, .850 OPS and .366 wOBA on the road.
Velasquez has been pitching at a career-best level, though his 4.66 xERA, 2.2 HR/9 and career-high 15.3 percent barrel rate and 47.2 percent hard-hit rate surrendered all hint that he's been fortunate to an extent. The right-hander has also been partly bailed out by a career-low .231 BABIP, and current Marlins bats have a .296/.373/..493 batting line in 94 plate appearances versus Velasquez as well.
The sum of the teams' average runs for the first five innings in the home/road splits that apply is also 4.6 runs, and the collective success each club has enjoyed against the opposing pitcher points me in the direction of a flyer on that prop at plus money.
Red Sox at Blue Jays, 7:37 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Nick Pivetta vs. Steven Matz
The Pick: Under 10.0 runs (-110) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: First 5 innings Under 5.0 runs (+115) for 1 RWBuck
TD Ballpark often hasn't been kind to pitchers this season, but Pivetta's 2021 profile implies he has a good chance of navigating the pitfalls of the hitter-friendly park. The right-hander has career-low 0.6 HR/9 and has limited batters to a .188 average. He's also allowing a career-low 5.6 percent barrel rate, and Pivetta at least has some experience under his belt managing another dangerous stadium in Fenway Park. He's also essentially been just as effective on the road as at home, as evidenced by a .190 BAA and .296 wOBA surrendered in 17 road frames.
Matz has had a couple bumps along the road in his first Blue Jays season, but his 3.87 xERA, 3.57 xFIP and 7.6 percent barrel rate allowed support the notion that he's been a bit better than his surface numbers indicate. The left-hander also gets a favorable matchup on paper against a Red Sox team that's struggled versus lefties on the road with a .298 wOBA and -2.1 wRAA this season.
Pivetta has allowed more than three earned runs only once, while Matz has allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of eight starts himself. The over is only 8-7-1 in Blue Jays home games and it's an abysmal 7-12 in Red Sox road games.
