Collette Calls: Running Games

Most of us on staff have either written or talked about the downward trend in offense enough this season to raise the red flag on what is a slow start. I do not expect it to be a problem all year because I am rather surprised how most clubs are using their rotations and bullpens as if 2021 is a normal season on the heels of a normal season. We are dealing with the big unknown of how last season's abbreviated and interrupted routines will impact the season. Yet, some clubs chugging ahead as if nothing has changed could find themselves testing their organizational depth by summer.

As clubs look to find ways to kickstart the offense, some clubs are looking to the running game. The break-even rate on steals is 72 to 74 percent, and the league has hovered around that figure in recent seasons:

• 2016 - 72 percent
• 2017 - 73 percent
• 2018 - 72 percent
• 2019 - 73 percent
• 2020 - 75 percent

Yet, in 2021, the league has swiped 318 bases in 407 attempts, which computes to a 78 percent success rate. The previous full-season best was in 2007 when the league converted 74.4 percent of stolen base attempts:

Despite the newfound overall success in steals, it is due to a few factors. Teams have been more selective in choosing when to run as the league-wide rate for stolen base attempts when the base in front of the runner is unoccupied is at an all-time low:

The success rate for steals as play began Wednesday has not exactly been evenly distributed either. A few teams have been extremely efficient converting their stolen base attempts while some others have failed to come close to the break-even rate:

Cleveland is 14 for 15 and San Francisco is just one behind them at 13 for 14, so those ratios are well-earned so far. The Mets are at the bottom of the scale, but their overall figure comes from three successful steals in just seven attempts while Washington has been more inefficient being thrown out seven times in 12 attempts. 

Things get more interesting when we look at the distribution of the stolen bases around the league because some teams are harvesting them:

There are a few groups of totals by team, but the far two left dots are blowing the curve for the league. The second-highest total belongs to Kansas City, who has attempted 27 steals in 23 games and is 22-for-27 in their stolen base attempts. It appears our concerns about Ned Yost retiring and Mike Matheny taking over the keys to the running game were ill-founded because Kansas City is doing this without Adalberto Mondesi, so it could be fun to watch once that Death Star running game is fully operational. 

The highest dot belongs to San Diego, which has attempted 39 steals and has successfully converted 32. The Padres have been on the move this season attempting a steal in 10 percent of the opportunities presented to them this season:

Things get even more interesting when we drill down into San Diego because there might be a weakness in the defending world champs, which the Padres have certainly exploited and other teams could follow suit:

Molly's tweet got me diving in to find the exact numbers, and San Diego certainly planted the seed in the minds of other teams as the Padres have attempted 20 steals against the Dodgers this season in their seven matchups, converting 19 of those 20!

• 4/16 - 3 for 3 (Walker Buehler start)
• 4/17 - 1 for 1
• 4/18 - 1 for 1
• 4/22 - 2 for 2
• 4/23 - 1 for 2
• 4/24 - 5 for 5 (Dustin May start)
• 4/26 - 6 for 6 (Trevor Bauer start)

The Dodgers have struggled to control the overall running game, but it clearly has not impacted their ability to win games this season. Dodger batteries have thwarted just six of 36 stolen base attempts this season as the book is clearly out in the league to exploit this particular issue with the team. No other team has had as many as 15 steals converted against them:

The staff shares responsibility as opposing runners have gone 12-for-15 when Kenley Jansen, Clayton Kershaw and Trevor Bauer have been on the mound. It is honestly nothing new with Jansen because the league has stolen 47 consecutive bases against him since Travis Jankowski was nabbed nearly five years ago to the day. We cannot exactly leverage this information in daily fantasy matchups with Jansen, but the Dodger situation as a whole very much bears watching given some of the matchups coming up on their schedule. 

The Cubs, Mariners and Marlins are on the Dodgers' schedule in May and have been better than league average in their stolen-base attempts. Jazz Chisholm's recent injury likely takes his legs out of the mix, but Javier Baez and Dylan Moore are perfect this season in their stolen-base attempts and likely will look to leverage that should they get on base against the Dodgers.  It is unlikely the Dodgers are going to move off the duo of Will Smith and Austin Barnes unless one gets injured, so this issue could follow the team for awhile. The team is 15-9 heading into Wednesday and 4-5 in one-run games, no doubt due to this issue allowing runners to move up 90 feet nearly at will. 

In summary, the league is strategically picking their opportunities to run and are doing better than ever as a league. San Diego has done particularly well utilizing its talents and exploiting the Dodgers issues controlling the running game. Kansas City is setting the table for what could be a fun summer once Mondesi is back in the lineup. 

Stolen bases have been in decline for some time, and early signs are showing us that overall totals may once again be down this year. The path to success might just be picking them up wherever you can by exploiting matchups. The Dodgers are not alone in their struggles as the Rays, Mariners, Red Sox, Padres, Blue Jays and Twins have each allowed a higher rate of successful stolen bases than the Dodgers. Exploit the matchups where you can!