This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 1-1, -.07 RWBucks
Season: 4-6, -2.65 RWBucks
Sunday brings us a typically front-loaded slate with only one evening game, and we have some interesting matchups to focus on from a betting perspective. There's an interesting mix of aces and sub-standard arms on the hill, but I've honed in on four bets to consider.
In search of the best price, I used two sportsbooks, FanDuel and PointsBet.
Rays at Yankees, 1:05 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Andrew Kittredge (opener)/Ryan Yarbrough (bulk reliever) vs. Gerrit Cole
The Pick: Yankees -261 (PointsBet) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-118 at FanDuel) for 1 RWBuck
You'll unsurprisingly have to pay a hefty price on the Yankees moneyline, as the pitching matchup is quite the mismatch. Kittredge is set to open and likely cover at least a pair of frames, and he comes into Sunday's matchup with an impressive 1.69 ERA in four appearances. However, There's a notable gap between his FIP (3.89) and xFIP (4.86), and he's also been a bit fortunate with a .250 BABIP against him.
Yarbrough has struggled to a 6.48 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in three starts while also posting an unsightly 42.4 LOB percentage and an anemic 14.7 percent strikeout rate. The Yankees have yet to get going on offense and against left-handers in particular, but Yarbrough is hittable (.319 BAA) and New York has too much talent to not break out of its season-opening funk at some point.
Cole is sporting typical Cole numbers: 1.47 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 41.4 percent strikeout rate and 17.1 percent swinging strike rate in three starts. The right-hander also has an 88.2 LOB percentage and has given up just one homer in 18.1 innings. Meanwhile, the Rays came into Saturday with a .216 average, .294 OBP and .289 wOBA versus righties, along with a 25.4 percent strikeout rate before doing the majority of their damage versus southpaw Jordan Montgomery.
I think this is a get-right spot for the Yankees at home not only in terms of a win, but a fairly sizable one at that. Therefore, I'm betting both the moneyline and run line.
Tigers at Athletics, 4:07 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Matthew Boyd vs. Chris Bassitt
The Pick: Athletics -138 (FanDuel) for 1 RWBuck
Boyd has opened the season in atypically impressive fashion, staying away from the long ball completely in the 19.1 innings, going 2-1 with a 1.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. However, there are some signs the lefty has also been a bit fortunate, beginning with the fact he hasn't generated an HR/9 lower than 1.4 in any of the last three seasons. Additionally, the gulf between Boyd's FIP (2.62) and xFIP (4.59) is significant, and he's also yielding a career-high 25.9 percent line-drive rate. Finally, consider he has a middling 6.5 K/9 while the A's have an .819 OPS and .352 wOBA versus left-handers.
Bassitt has been solid despite his 1-2 record, as he's given up no more than four earned runs in any of his three starts, which came against the Dodgers. The Tigers also have a mediocre .226 average and .294 OBP versus righties, as well as a middling .312 wOBA and 32.8 percent hard-contact rate against right-handers.
Indians at Reds, 1:10pm EDT
Starting Pitchers: Shane Bieber vs. Wade Miley
The Pick: Over 7.5 runs (-102 at FanDuel) for 1 RWBuck
Bieber was dominant last time out, but the Reds have NL-high 18 homers and .365 wOBA versus righties. Additionally, Miley is due for some regression after not allowing an earned run in first two starts and getting a bit fortunate with a .143 BABIP.
