Mound Musings: Some Very Big Surprises

This year, there have been even more (than usual) young and veteran arms posting surprising numbers, both good and bad. Some have enjoyed incredible success, and that always leads to decisions on whether they should be added to your fantasy roster. Others who were being counted upon by their fantasy owners to anchor their staffs have, so far, been just that – literally, an anchor. For the new guys who've been turning heads, even with those good beginnings, most won't post long term value as the hitters build a book on them and uncover their flaws. However, some likely will take advantage of the opportunity, and so should you.

That said, I would like to feature a few pitchers who have impressed me, some with solid numbers, or maybe just with future potential at this point in the season. Maybe they have just arrived on the MLB scene, or perhaps something has changed, making them much more valuable than anyone really anticipated. Then, I'll flip the coin and throw out some pitchers who have posted impressive numbers so far, but might be risky propositions going forward. Watch the warning signs on these guys. 

You might consider adding these arms:

Dylan Bundy (Angels) – I had already decided to include Bundy on this list before his most recent start against San Francisco. Four walks and a couple homers over just four innings against a fairly light hitting Giants lineup now has me nervous about him. My knock on Bundy has always been his inconsistency and propensity to underperform given his raw skill set. He had been looking so much better after coming to the Angels from Baltimore, and perhaps his rocky outing will prove to be an outlier, but I'll admit to being skittish right now. Bundy has what he needs to be successful, but I've been able to say that for years. Pursue him now? Do you feel lucky?

Walker Buehler (Dodgers) – I'm actually at just a bit of a loss when trying to explain Buehler's lackluster 2020 season to date. His velocity is good, his pitches are often explosive, though not always very well located, and he frequently flashes glimpses of the Buehler I expected to take another step forward this year, yet he sports an unsightly 5.21 ERA after four starts. Too many walks, too many home runs and relatively short outings suggest he just isn't totally in sync yet, and/or he isn't built up to full strength. All that said, I remain confident he will pull things together this season, and if you believe that like I do, he becomes a classic buy-low candidate if his owner is frustrated enough to let him go at a discount. Don't wait too long. The real Buehler could arrive any day.

Dinelson Lamet (Padres) – How can I rationalize suggesting you pursue a pitcher with a 1.59 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP and 36 strikeouts over 28 innings? I'll admit it sounds like you would be buying high, but I actually think the best is yet to come with Lamet. Both his fastball and, even more so, his slider can be nearly unhittable, but there's still room for improvement. His command, while good, still comes and goes occasionally, especially with his off-speed stuff. As that improves, his pitch counts could drop, allowing him to pitch even deeper into games, and with an increase in strikeout rate (already at an impressive 11.4/9). Realistically, Lamet is probably just now coming back to full strength as he recovers from 2018 Tommy John surgery. The velocity is there (97.2 mph), and the bite is there. The command and stamina is almost always the last to return.

Jose Berrios (Twins) – Berrios (5.92 ERA, 1.64 WHIP) is my American League version of Buehler. In watching him, most of the pieces seem to be in place. His velocity is actually up a tick, and his pitches generally show a lot of life, but his command is still spotty and he doesn't appear to have his normal stamina. At his best, Berrios owns an incredible curveball, which complements a very good fastball, but he has to locate that breaking ball, and he hasn't done that with any consistency. Those command issues, as with Buehler, have led to a significant jump in walk rate and elevated pitch counts. However, I continue to see signs that he could be getting everything in place, and he does pitch in front of one of the most devastating offenses in the game. In my eyes, he doesn't quite have Buehler's ceiling, but I'd love to add him to my staff.

I'm staying away from these pitchers:

Anyone standing on a small hill in the middle of a baseball field wearing a Boston uniform (Red Sox) – Without Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez, et al, I figured things would be tough in Beantown, but it's even worse than I anticipated. I suppose you can hope for a reasonably good outing now and then from Nathan Eovaldi, or even lefty Martin Perez, and they can still hit enough to win a few games, but their rotation is a wreck, and the bullpen is even worse. I'm sure they'll be back in a year or maybe two, but for 2020, I'm staying far, far, away. Give these guys credit for giving it their best, but they just don't have the tools.

Max Fried (Braves) – Call me a pessimist. Call me a doubter. Heck, you can even call me just plain stubborn. Fried continues to roll on with a 1.24 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP with 28 strikeouts over 29 innings in five starts, and pitching in front of one of the most exciting young teams in baseball, it's not too surprising that he's drawing a lot of attention. However, I still feel like this is a case of buyer beware. He features a very nice curveball and a decent fastball with decent command, but those two pitches should not equate to long term success in the rotation. One thing you cannot call me is infallible. He looks like he should be easier to hit, but I must be missing something. Maybe his motion is more deceptive than it looks, or maybe his pitches move more or later than it appears. Fried might be one of those guys who gets past me, but I'm selling high.

Randy Dobnak (Twins) – Dobnak is an interesting study. His fastball certainly isn't overpowering (91.3 mph), but he does generate relatively good movement with it. His secondary pitches are just average or at least close to it. That may be enough to get by in a starting role in the short term, but I'm concerned teams will start recognizing the fastball and sit on it until they get something in the hitting zone. He does throw strikes, which helps a lot, but his pedestrian stuff and general inability to miss many bats overall, is a red flag. It may be about time to collect your dividends and sell on him.

Antonio Senzatela (Rockies) – The entire Colorado rotation is surprising people this season, and maybe ballpark prejudices die hard, but I'm not completely buying into it. Kyle Freeland might be the exception, as he seems to have remembered what worked so well in 2018, but I'm not a Senzatela fan. He has below average command of rather ordinary stuff, and ordinary stuff eventually gets hit in Coors Field. I don't think he'll experience a repeat of 2019 (6.71 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP), but his current peripherals (2.90 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP) aren't likely to last. If you own him, I advise extreme caution – maybe a spot start now and then on the road against weaker teams, but if you can entice someone to buy into his current stats, now is the time to deal.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings

• I can't help myself. A few years ago, Matt Harvey was one of the highest ceiling pitchers I had seen in a while, but injuries derailed his career, and he has struggled to come back. That was a long time ago, but I still watch now and then, just in case. The velocity isn't bad, but the command isn't there.
• Padres southpaw Adrian Morejon made an impression in his first 2020 outing. He struggled in a brief run last year, but he was throwing strikes and getting ahead in counts the other night. He needs to show he can stay in sync and make it work more than once through the order, but keep an eye on him.
• I expected a very strong season from the Twins Kenta Maeda, but his flirting with a no-hitter against Milwaukee, including eight straight strikeouts over one stretch really brought those expectations into focus. He threw 115 pitches, which is a bit concerning, but he's one I'd aggressively pursue moving forward.
• The Mets have pulled lefty Steven Matz from the rotation and replaced him with Seth Lugo. I like Lugo in the bullpen, but I don't think his stuff plays up as well when he has to face hitters two or three times in an outing. That may a while, as he needs to build up his pitch counts, but long term this may hurt his value.
• The Tigers just unveiled a couple of their top prospect arms in Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize. Both posted so-so stats, but I don't get too down on a kid making his debut. Skubal doesn't really appear ready to me, but Mize showed a lot of promise. Excellent stuff if he can consistently hit his spots.
• The Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty started, albeit briefly, for the first time since Opening Day earlier this week. The COVID-19 shutdown set baDK the whole St. Louis team, so they are being very cautious with his workload right now. It may take a couple more outings to build him back to top form.

Endgame Odyssey:

Bullpen meltdowns are unfortunately becoming rather commonplace these days, but epic meltdowns are still fairly uncommon. The Giants have no legitimate closer, and that became even more evident when Trevor Gott was torched for 11 runs while recording just four outs over three appearances. I still think they should try Shaun Anderson, but Tony Watson is probably first in line. Don't look now, but the Mets can at least be hopeful that Edwin Diaz is getting his act together. He has allowed just one run in seven August appearances, and he may be back in the closer's role. I think there still will be some matchup plays in St. Louis, but not too surprisingly, Andrew Miller has emerged as a likely source of saves. There is a very real possibility Kirby Yates won't be back with the Padres this year. Drew Pomeranz remains the best bet for saves, but they are also open to playing matchups. Aroldis Chapman is back with the Yankees and will probably be closing soon, but they may not want to overwork him. I will say, I expect more meltdowns, more matchup playing and, unfortunately, more injuries as the heavy workloads and less than ideal preseason preparation catches up with many bullpens.