Mound Musings: Life, the Universe and Everything

Over the past couple of years, Life, the Universe and Everything, has gradually become a semi-regular part of Mound Musings. As we all try to answer the ultimate question, I'll occasionally dedicate this space to elaborating on questions from you, the readers. As we hopefully get up to speed for the 2020 season, I thought it might be a good time to review some of the events that could soon come about, leading to a resumption of play in the foreseeable future. We're certainly not there yet, but I think I see a faint light at the end of the tunnel.

The Light at the End of That Tunnel: It's there. It's still flickering at times, but it's there. The owners and the player's union have been immersed in talks, and it's safe to say the one thing they all agree upon is the hope baseball can return sooner rather than later. Not surprisingly, information regarding the plan has been both sketchy and fluctuating as the status of the pandemic updates.

Other than money, one key point that continues to vacillate is length of schedule. From a fantasy perspective, that's a big one. Not long ago, the prevailing winds suggested they might play close to a typical 162-game regular season. Starting so late in the year, that would have meant a greatly compressed schedule with frequent doubleheaders, and pre-playoff games being played into October or even November. The implications would be far-reaching. Even with significantly expanded rosters, that schedule would be very taxing on pitching staffs, both starting rotations, and bullpens. Additionally, at least part of the schedule would need to be played in neutral venues since weather would preclude many October/November games in northern cities. That loss of home field "advantage" would certainly help some pitchers while penalizing others.

More recently, the talks have focused on playing roughly a half season of 78 to 82 games. Assuming a regular season starting date of early July – the most frequently mentioned timeline – the average number of weekly games on the schedule would be similar to that of a normal season spanning early July to the end of September. With deeper rosters, that would likely reduce the number of fringy pitchers appearing in games, and might allow most games to be played in each team's home park. 

I say "might" for multiple reasons. The $64,000 question is when. As it really should be, everything is coming down to when, how and where games can be played safely. Even with no fans in the stands – likely to be the case, at least initially – the possible health risks could be very prohibitive. And, the restrictions, including both specific rules, and the date those rules could be lifted, varies widely from country to country, state to state, and even municipality to municipality. Not surprisingly, with a pool of people as large as that of a major league roster with coaches and staff, there are quite a few who fall into the higher risk category because of age or other health problems. Until games can be played, wherever and however, with reasonably assured safety, the final plan and starting dates for "spring" training and regular season games will be up in the air.

What About the Kids: I do want to add one more spark to the light at the end of the tunnel thoughts. It really looks like the minor league season as we know it is gone for 2020. MLB rosters will be expanded, and there could be a camp environment for at least part of the minor leaguers to hopefully avoid slowing or stalling their development. This is critical. For most teams, the players in their minor league system are their lifeblood; their future. At least the blue chip prospects are. Teams generally have considerable money and, depending on their level, a lot of time invested in these guys. Further, they are looking at a pretty small window to recoup that investment. First, they need to be ready to contribute at the major league level, then arbitration factors in, driving costs sky high for the best ones, and eventually free agency will probably end the relationship. And, even if they stay, advancing age will become a factor. It happens very quickly, so you can see how a year of lost development could be catastrophic.

We currently have no idea how this will play out. Many teams would probably prefer to avoid starting the service time clock for prospects who aren't quite ready to contribute. That's especially true for smaller market teams, and teams that don't expect to compete for playoff berths this season. If something like a training camp environment is part of the program where these top kids can regularly face viable competition, there's minimal concern. However, if that doesn't come to be, teams may be compelled to use some of those expanded roster spots to keep the best of their kids actively progressing. That could be a problem. Besides the financial considerations, if they aren't ready, getting beat up routinely can have a negative impact psychologically. And, what about fantasy implications? Even heavily hyped prospects may not see the key role you anticipate, and when they do pitch, an under-prepared prospect can be a disaster.

We'll watch closely to see which direction this ends up going, but my best advice today probably would be to tread very cautiously with as yet unproven prospects.

Bounce-back Candidates for Your Consideration: I'm always on the lookout for pitchers that could fall under this heading. Pretty simple really, it amounts to Value 101, and that's the way to win fantasy leagues.

The primary premise is, fantasy owners often weight their draft/auction values on what the player did the previous season. Obviously that should be a factor in your rankings, but it should not be over-weighted. There are usually several factors to consider. It could be something as random as bad luck, something as obvious as a significant injury, something as subtle as minor mechanical issues, or even something as frustrating as poor defensive play. In many cases, it's all of the above to some extent. Yes, the pitcher could simply be in decline, and that guy is a poor bet, but that's actually less likely.

A good Golden Rule for fantasy baseball is, what the pitcher might do in the upcoming year is far more important than what he did last year. And, before I look at some arms to consider coming off a disappointing season in 2019, also keep in mind, this sword can cut both ways. A career year last year may not always result in the same this season. Sometimes there is still upside to tap, but in many cases, the best already happened, and the value won't return.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings Regarding Bounce-back Candidates:

• Right at the top of this list has to be Tampa Bay's Blake Snell. After an almost unbelievable 2018 that saw him win the AL Cy Young, he scuffled before undergoing minor elbow surgery, He never quite returned to full strength. Don't expect a 1.89 ERA again, but Cy Young contention is within his reach.
• I've been talking up Madison Bumgarner all year, and I'm not stopping now. He's getting a little older and he has dealt with a series of nagging injuries, but he still has the basics of a top-of-the-rotation starter. I also like the move to Arizona, which is the change of scenery that can really perk a guy up.
• A porous defense can seriously damage the peripherals of a pitcher who relies heavily on generating ground balls. That sums up the Mets' Marcus Stroman. His ERA wasn't all that bad (double plays helped a lot), but with even marginally better defense he could take his game up a level. I like his chances.
• There were pretty high expectations when Yusei Kikuchi came over from Japan and joined the Mariners. Unfortunately, an ugly 5.46 ERA wasn't what they had in mind. That said, a huge cultural shift can be a lot to deal with, and there were times when he flashed some very good stuff. Give him a mulligan for 2019.
• Masahiro Tanaka has lost a tick since being diagnosed with elbow issues that could have sent him for Tommy John surgery. He pitches down in the zone, and as long as he stays there, the ball stays in the park. He is remaking himself, and I keep seeing positive signs. He is hinting that a big year could happen soon.
• A 4.07 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP over just 73 innings is pretty ho hum, but if you toss in 105 strikeouts from a pitcher just returning from Tommy John surgery it might be wise to take notice. Dinelson Lamet needs just slightly better consistency with his secondary stuff to move into the upper echelon of starting pitchers.

Endgame Odyssey:

With MLB 2020 looming (hopefully) in the not too distant future, I thought this might be a good time to throw out some closers who are at or near the top of the list for this year. It might surprise some to see Oakland's Liam Hendriks leading the way. I like him better every time I see him, as he appears to be falling in love with the closer role. Also, Hendriks is a workhorse-type who can work often, and he gets quite a few extra points for that. Probably more of a mainstream choice, Kirby Yates is a close second. He's also a workhorse, and he's proven himself to be one of the most reliable closers in the game. The next two are close in my eyes. I'll give an edge to Houston's Roberto Osuna but I'm not ready to write off Kenley Jansen who would have topped this list before some health issues slowed him down. Rounding out the top five is another perhaps mild surprise. Minnesota's Taylor Rogers finally claimed the full time closer gig, and he's running with it. Great mound presence is his calling card. I'll close the list with a couple honorable mentions. Both Ken Giles and Aroldis Chapman received serious consideration, but unlike the workhorses, durability concerns cost them points.