Mound Musings: Seeking Future Closer; Auditions Will Be Ongoing

It's nearly May, and some fantasy owners are probably growing restless with the season still some time away. It's okay. I think there might be a light, albeit still perhaps a dim one, beginning to flicker. This week, I have decided to focus on a question I see almost every week: Which relief pitchers are likely to collect holds, or better yet, might see save chances at some time in the future?

Interestingly, when a team decides they need to change its closer, it's not always the apparently obvious option who gets the call. While you might think the top set-up guy who typically works the eighth inning is next in line, that's not always the case. Over the years, I have compiled an unofficial checklist of frequently preferred attributes that could lead to a particular reliever being given the first crack at future save chances. I thought it might be useful to go over those attributes, and then I'll profile a reliever who was a surprise choice to many when he moved into the ninth inning gig, but has since proven to be quite comfortable finishing games.

Things to watch for on a potential future closer's resume:

Below is an outline of factors I take into consideration when assessing possible role changes in a bullpen. Understand, these are generalizations, and not cast in stone. And, the situation is often very fluid, meaning the perceived need for change can be critical one day and seemingly less important the next. Baseball still tends to be "traditional," and change is not typically the preferred course of action.

• Opportunity is the first variable – Changes in bullpen roles may be gradual, or they can happen virtually overnight. When you assess a team's bullpen, you need to first determine whether real opportunity exists. A team in playoff contention, with an established closer, is pretty unlikely to make a major change even if the bullpen falters a bit. An example of opportunity, or rather current lack of current opportunity, is in Cleveland right now. I believe Emmanuel Clase eventually will pitch the ninth inning in a major league uniform. However, the Indians have a fairly entrenched closer in Brad Hand. While Hand is actually perhaps better suited to a set-up role, he got an opportunity and logged enough saves to be considered a closer. Even with an occasional bump in the road, when healthy, and wearing an Indians uniform, barring a significant implosion, Hand will probably see most save chances. Clase will need to bide his time, building his manager's confidence, pitching in higher leverage situations, maybe even getting an occasional save chance if Hand needs a day off, but until the circumstances change, his window of opportunity likely won't open.
• Prior closing experience – Right or wrong, good or bad, the reality is, when looking for a new closer, most managers will look first at old closers. Okay, not necessarily old, but former closers with experience pitching in the ninth inning.  Some pretty mediocre (might be generous) relief pitchers have made a career floating from ream to team, often filling in as an interim closer. At the end of every season I publish my annual awards issue including the Kevin Gregg award – given to the pitcher who logged saves despite not really profiling as a closer at all. In most cases the winner is someone who had pitched the ninth inning in the past, and suddenly found another open window of opportunity. Obviously, a pitcher can't have prior closing experience until he's had a chance to fill that role. Closing in college or the minors is some help, but doing it at the major league level is very different. It will often take a situation where there is a need for a closer and no one in that bullpen has prior closing experience, resulting in what I like to call "open auditions" to find the new endgamer.
• Repertoire and possible changes to it – Most relief pitchers, including closers, are former starting pitchers. Until recently, it was almost unheard of to see a relief pitcher taken (at least taken very early) in the amateur draft. The best young arms were groomed to be starters, and the better the arm, the more patient teams would be to see if the guy could develop the repertoire needed to succeed at the highest level of the game. We are gradually seeing an evolution with pitchers being developed as relief specialists right out of the box. Someday, relief pitchers may not carry the perceived stigma of being a failed starting pitcher. That said, a late-inning reliever will probably need a minimum of two reliable quality pitches (unlike a starter who will almost always need at least three or four). I would say the top two would be a good lively fastball and a sharp slider, with a solid curveball also a possibility. They need a put away pitch – something to generate strikeouts. That is generally the calling card of a classic closer. They are typically not sinkerball specialists who live on groundballs and are often best suited to pitching earlier in games, often coming in with men on base, and the pitch they have probably failed to develop is a consistent changeup. That is usually what starting pitchers have over relievers. The important thing is, the two goof pitches need to be very good, and they have to be thrown for strikes and located well. Putting men on base is the ultimate concern.
• Past performance (even as a starting pitcher) – As a continuation of some of the factors discussed above, it's understandably all about performance. Relief pitching roles are on a sliding scale. If you perform well, the manager gains confidence and you gradually see more high-leverage work. Conversely, if you pitch poorly, you eventually only pitch in 8-1 games, and if it gets bad enough, you might get a bus ticket to Fresno. The takeaway here is uncovering reasons for poor performance (assuming a reasonably good couple of pitches). Is it vulnerability to opposite hand hitters? Usually lack of a changeup. Does velocity and/or movement decline with higher pitch counts? Stamina could be an issue. If a starting pitcher, does he frequently hit a wall in the fourth or fifth inning with more hard hit balls and waning command? Again, probably an insufficient repertoire. The third time through, the batting order hitters are getting the timing down on the primary pitches, and he is unable to command the zone with his less reliable third and fourth pitches. All of these can be factors.
• Mental makeup – This is easily the most difficult factor to quantify, but the very best, even elite, closers all have one attribute in common. They all have a very short memory. It's a pressure-packed job. Every time a closer steps on the mound, it's a win or lose scenario, and the results are often heavily on his shoulders. And, under the white-hot lights of a media shark tank like New York City, that pressure can be greatly magnified. If you have a bad outing on day, you must be avle to forget that one, and come out guns blazing, sometimes the next day. Some pitchers, especially the elite closers, thrive on that pressure. Others, even some with exceptional stuff, collapse under the weight of it, and need less stressful work. Think of one of my all-rime favorites. Fernando Rodney could have an epic meltdown one night, and the next night, enter the game with an even more tenuous lead, and be virtually untouchable.

In the Spotlight: Oakland's Liam Hendriks

I thought it might be interesting to highlight a recently anointed closer who provided a lot of hints before jumping into the spotlight. I actually named him my Closer of the Year last season, including these comments in my award:

Hendriks has just 23 saves, but he didn't take over the role until late June. Since then, he's been an ultra-high value boon to both the A's and his fantasy owners. Consider that as a starter early in his career, his fastball was an ordinary 90 to 91 mph. He shifted to the bullpen and it bumped up to 93 to 94 mph – not unusual. Now, 30 years old, he pops the mitt at 97 to 98 mph, and the movement is better than ever. Like fine wine, he just keeps getting better with age.

Hendriks pitched 156 innings, mostly with the Twins who initially signed him, over parts of five seasons as a starter. His ERA over those outings was an abysmal 6.00-plus. He lacked a quality third pitch, he often ran into a wall in the middle innings, and pacing himself to try and get through five or six innings, there just wasn't a lot of life on his pitches. He was going nowhere, and there was no viable roadmap. He moved on to Kansas City, then Toronto, before landing with the A's in 2016. He floated between starting and relieving with predictably mixed results before moving to the bullpen fulltime in 2018. The results were amazing.

He started off working in middle relief. His velocity jumped. Movement increased, particularly on his curveball. He was effective. He earned a set-up role, and when closer Blake Treinen suffered a succession of injuries in early 2019, including elbow, shoulder and back woes, the window of opportunity opened for Hendriks. The results were the best iWAR since Eric Gagne in 2003, 25 saves, a 0.96 WHIP with a 1.80 ERA, and 124 strikeouts in 85 innings. I'll take that.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The aforementioned lack of a reliable changeup reared it's ugly head for the Cubs' Jose Quintana last year. It was never a top-tier pitch for him, but opposing hitters were clearly seeing it even better than in the past. He was working on a different grip this spring, so there is hope for better results when play resumes.
• Because I am so high on Shohei Ohtani, I keep close tabs on his progress as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. He is reportedly tossing a couple of bullpen sessions a week, and should face live hitters fairly soon. His workload during the season will be closely monitored, but he could be ready for "Opening" Day.
• The good news is the Pirates' Jameson Taillon has resumed a rehab throwing program, but the bad news is he has already undergone a pair of Tommy John surgeries. I don't give much thought to one, as it's basically rebuilding a worn out elbow, but two suggests there may well be chronic issues, and that's a concern.
• Seattle's Justus Sheffield was once a moderately promising prospect, but lacking command of his secondary stuff actually elicited talk of a move to the bullpen. His command was significantly better this spring, albeit in a small sample. If the improvement is genuine he could be a sleeper candidate.

Endgame Odyssey:

With baseball in a holding pattern, our Endgame Odyssey is a bit like Odysseus trying to find his way home to Ithaca. Some teams can't really know where they are until things get going again. There are teams with closers penciled in to start the season who don't fit the criteria above. Miami's Brandon Kintzler is at the top of the list. He doesn't profile as a closer, but he has a few saves on his resume, and that gets him into the early consideration set. If they can avoid using him as an opener, I think Ryne Stanek might eventually be a better bet. Tony Watson in San Francisco falls into the same boat. An accomplished set-up man with a handful of saves, he may be forced into the closing gig as much as anything because the Giant's don't have many viable options right now. Add Yoshihisa Hirano in Seattle and Brandon Workman in Boston to the list as well. Both could be placeholders for pitchers (Austin Adams, Carl Edwards Jr. or Dan Altavilla in Seattle and Darwinzon Hernandez in Boston) who could claim the job if they ever prove they can throw strikes.