This article is part of our Horse Racing series.
Kentucky Derby Betting: Latest Kentucky Derby Odds and Expert Picks + How To Bet The Kentucky Derby
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The most anticipated day in horse racing sets its eyes on Churchill Downs this Saturday for the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby. The 1 ¼ mile (10 furlongs) race is the shortest of the three Triple Crown races and features 20 horses. Post time is scheduled for 6:57 p.m. EST. Let's look at this year's participants along with their morning-line Kentucky Derby odds, jockey and record.
Kentucky Derby Odds and Horses
1. Dornoch (20-1) Luis Saez, 6: 3-2-0 (starts: 1st, 2nd, 3rd)
2. Sierra Leone (3-1) Tyler Gaffalione, 4: 3-1-0
3. Mystik Dan (20-1) Brian Hernandez Jr., 6: 2-1-1
4. Catching Freedom (8-1) Flavien Prat, 5: 3-0-1
5. Catalytic (30-1) Jose Ortiz, 3: 1-2-0
6. Just Steel (20-1) Keith Asmussen, 11: 2-4-1
7. Honor Marie (20-1) Ben Curtis, 5: 2-2-0
8. Just a Touch (10-1) Florent Geroux 3: 1-2-0
9. Encino (20-1) SCRATCHED
10. T O Password (30-1) Kazushi Kimura, 2: 2-0-0
11. Forever Young (10-1) Ryusei Sakai, 5: 5-0-0
12. Track Phantom (20-1) Joel Rosario, 7: 3-2-1
13. West Saratoga (50-1) Jesus Castanon 10: 2-5-1
14. Endlessly (30-1) Umberto Rispoli, 6: 5-0-0
15. Domestic Product (30-1) Irad Ortiz Jr., 5: 2-1-0
16. Grand Mo the First (50-1) Emisael Jaramillo, 6: 2-0-4
17. Fierceness (5-2) John Velazquez, 5: 3-0-1
18. Stronghold (20-1) Antonio Fresu, 6: 3-3-0
19. Resilience (20-1) Junior Alvarado, 6: 2-1-1
20. Society Man (50-1) Frankie Dettori, 5: 1-1-1
21. Epic Ride (50-1) Adam Beschizza, 5: 2-2-1
Alternate: Mugatu (50-1) Joseph Talamo 12: 1-1-3
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What Time is the Kentucky Derby?
This year's Kentucky Derby will start at 6:57 PM Eastern on Saturday, May 4.
Past Kentucky Derby Winners
2023: Mage (15-1)
2022: Rich Strike (80-1)
2021: Mandaloun (26-1) *Medina Spirit (12-1) was later disqualified for a positive drug test
2020: Authentic (8-1)
2019: Country House (65-1)
2018: Justify (5-2)
2017: Always Dreaming (9-2)
2016: Nyquist (2-1)
2015: American Pharoah (5-2)
2014: California Chrome (5-2)
Following a stretch of four single-digit payout winners from 2014-2018, we've seen longshots win the race in five consecutive years. That includes a pair of shocking upsets in Country House and Rich Strike. American Pharoah and Justify are the two Triple Crown winners on the list.
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Kentucky Derby Favorites
Fierceness is the slight morning-line favorite and it's easy to see why as the colt has won three of its five races. The champion juvenile of 2023 won the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita and then won the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park at the end of March by a whopping 13 lengths over Catalytic and Grand Mo the First. Jockey John Velazquez is a three-time Derby winner.
Sierra Leone comes in just behind Fierceness in the morning-line odds and will be making its fifth start (three wins, one second). The colt has picked up two notable wins this year, including the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds and the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, where it charged late to beat Just a Touch (and a pair of other Derby horses) by a length and a half.
Early Pace
If things go as planned, a 10-1 shot Just a Touch will look to get off to the early lead. He had the lead at the top of the stretch in the aforementioned Blue Grass Stakes before being caught by Sierra Leone. Has excellent connections with trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux who were both with Mandaloun here in 2021.
Track Phantom was the betting favorite at the Louisiana Derby and held the lead for most of the race, so he's another candidate to get off to a fast start. Considering he faded to finish fourth at a shorter distance despite controlling the pace (48.33 half mile) isn't a great sign, however.
Closers
If the race features some fast fractions in the early going, it will set up well for Catching Freedom, who much like favorite Fierceness likes to charge late. He's won three of five races, including last time out at the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, where he was dead last at the three-quarter pole but surged to beat Honor Marie by a length.
Resilience is another notable horse with late speed and although he needed four races to break its maiden, he has now won two of the last three including the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct last month by over two lengths. Note the jockey change to Junior Alvarado as John Velazquez is on Fierceness.
Darkhorses
Forever Young is one of two horses coming over from Japan (T O Password is the other), and although a lack of speed ratings makes them tougher to handicap, don't make the mistake of overlooking them. Forever Young is the more accomplished of the two, winning in all five of its starts, highlighted most recently in the Grade 2 UAE Derby.
Mystik Dan picked up a nice victory two starts back, winning the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn by a massive eight lengths. He moved up in class to the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby last time out, finishing third, and it's promising to note that he closed strong at a shorter distance. I'm not sure if he can win but he is definitely worth considering in exotic bets.
How To Bet On Kentucky Derby
Win Bet: This is the most common horse racing bet. You're wagering on a horse strictly to win. Second or dead last both pays zero. Bet on as many horses to win as you like!
Place Bet: Betting on a horse to place means you'll win if the horse(s) you bet on finishes first or second, giving you a better chance of cashing a ticket.
Show Bet: If you bet on a horse to show, you'll win if your horse finishes in the top three. Best saved for horses with longer odds.
Across the Board: If you bet on a horse across the board, you're betting them to win, place and show. If your horse wins, you cash all three! A $2 across the board bet will cost $6. My dad's favorite bet!
Exacta: An exacta wager is betting on the two horses that come in first and second. You can bet on multiple horses to finish first and multiple to finish second to give yourself more chances. Often times, handicappers will do an exacta box with several horses in which they'll win no matter which of their horses comes in first or second. A $1 exacta wager tends to be the most common.
Trifecta: Selecting the top-3 finishers is called a trifecta, and often comes with a big payout due to the degree of difficulty - especially in a 20 horse race. Just like the exacta, you can box the trifecta, although the additional combinations make a lot of bettors choose $.50 trifecta wager.
Superfecta: If you really like to gamble, the superfecta pays out for correctly picking the top-4 finishers in order. Don't be afraid to throw some longshots in your selections, as you'll often see a 50-1 shot or longer sneak into the top-4. A $.10 superfecta wager allows for a wealth of combinations.
Daily Double: If you like to have action on multiple races, the Daily Double pays out for correctly picking horses in two consecutive races. Feel free to pick multiple horses in each race to give yourself more combinations, albeit at a higher cost. You can pair the Kentucky Derby Daily Double with the race before or the race after.
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Kentucky Derby Predictions
Bettors tend to flock towards horses in the Derby that have a track record of winning, which will likely leave plenty of value on Just a Touch. After easily breaking its maiden in its debut, he quickly jumped up in class, finishing runner-up in Grade 3 and Grade 1 events. If Just a Touch gets to or near the lead early at reasonably paced fractions, I expect him to have enough for the stretch run to pull off a minor upset.
My Bets
Win: 8
Exacta: 2,11/2,3,4,8,11,17 ($1 Exacta wheel would cost $10)
Trifecta: 17/2,3,8,11/2,3,4,6,8,11 ($.50 Trifecta wheel would cost $10)
